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Recently, everyone seems to be confused by Bitcoin's market movements. A single statement from Trump caused Bitcoin to surge by 10% in one day, and similarly, due to his manipulation, combined with insider trading, it dropped by 10% in another day. It feels like everyone is shrouded in a sense of despair, thinking that there won't be any significant market movements this year. Currently, Bitcoin appears to be in a deep consolidation phase, and with liquidity drying up, many believe this bull market is over. Here comes the key point: the bull market is not over, and I dare to assert that there will still be a decent market movement this year, and I will provide the peak price for Bitcoin during this bull market. Here are my arguments; for a quick overview, please scroll to the end for the conclusion: ① From the perspective of price increase after halving: Let's first familiarize ourselves with history. 1. First halving in 2012: Halving date: November 28, 2012 Price on halving day: approximately $12.35 Price one year later (November 28, 2013): approximately $1038 Price increase after one year: (1038 - 12.35) / 12.35 ≈ 8300% Price 18 months later (May 28, 2014): approximately $570 (this point is not the peak) Price increase after 18 months: (570 - 12.35) / 12.35 ≈ 4523% 2. Second halving in 2016: Halving date: July 9, 2016 Price on halving day: approximately $650.5 Price 18 months later (January 9, 2018): approximately $14175 (this point is close to the bull market peak) Price increase after 18 months: (14175 - 650.5) / 650.5 ≈ 2080% 3. Third halving in 2020: Halving date: May 11, 2020 Price on halving day: approximately $8747 Price 18 months later (November 11, 2021): approximately $64,900 (this point is close to the bull peak) Price increase after 18 months: (64,900 - 8747) / 8747 ≈ 642% OK, let's start building a mathematical model: Data points (halving times x vs price increase y): First halving (2012): x=1, y=8300% Second halving (2016): x=2, y=2080% Third halving (2020): x=3, y=642% Convert the price increase to natural logarithm to linearize the nonlinear trend, then establish a linear regression equation: Fitting the linear equation in logarithmic scale ln(y)=a⋅x+b, we get: Slope a≈−1.2854, intercept b≈10.3914 The equation is ln(y)=−1.2854x+10.3914 Exponential restoration: Restoring the equation to exponential form: y=e^(−1.2854x+10.3914) (Figure 1) Substituting x=4, y=182% According to CoinMarketCap, the closing price of Bitcoin on April 20, 2024, is approximately $63,424. Thus, based on the formula: Predicted price increase = halving day price * (1 + predicted price increase percentage) Predicted price increase = $63,424 * (1 + 1.82) = $63,424 * 2.82 ≈ $178,865.28 Therefore, according to the halving cycle calculation, the peak price of Bitcoin in 2025 is estimated to be $178,865.28, roughly $170,000.

② Calculating based on the purchasing power of MicroStrategy and BlackRock: Current circulating supply of Bitcoin: approximately 19.6 million coins (excluding long-term holders). Several premises need to be established: 1. The market is in an absolute buyer imbalance state, meaning Bitcoin is in a one-sided bullish surge, indicating that the buying pressure far exceeds the selling pressure. 2. Assuming there are only two absolute purchasing powers left in the market, MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor and BlackRock's Larry Fink, which means other institutions are unwilling to buy Bitcoin or ETFs at high prices. 3. Assuming MicroStrategy and BlackRock collectively purchase 1 million coins during Bitcoin's bullish surge (approximately 5.1% of the circulating supply). Price elasticity assumption: If demand elasticity is extremely low (assumed value is -0.028), a 5.1% reduction in supply would require a price increase of 182% to balance: Then %▲P=%▲Q/Ed=-5.1%/-0.028=182% Calculating at a price of $85,000, the peak price would be $85,000 * (1 + 1.82) = $240,000. This number seems very high, but if we reverse-engineer it, we find: Estimated inflow: purchasing 1 million coins, assuming the average cost for BlackRock and MicroStrategy is raised to $162,500 (the midpoint between $85k and $240k), requires Funds for the surge: 1,000,000 × $162,500 = $16.25 billion Market cap growth: from $1.66 trillion to $4.704 trillion ($240k × 19.6M), an increase of $303.8 billion. Multiplier effect: market cap increase / fund inflow ≈ 18.7 times, which aligns with the bubble model of a one-sided explosive market. Thus, under all these assumptions, the theoretical upper limit for Bitcoin's price this year could reach $240,000.

③ Estimating from an on-chain perspective using MVRV data: Looking back at history, 2013 bull market: MVRV peak of 5.7, price approximately $1100 2017 bull market: MVRV peak of 4.72, price approximately $20,000 2021 bull market: MVRV peak of 3.96, price approximately $69,000 Establishing a logarithmic function model: y = -345142 * ln(x ) + 598678 (Figure 2) When MVRV exceeds 3, it indicates a peak, so substituting gives y=219489. Thus, based on on-chain MVRV data, Bitcoin's possible peak in this cycle could be around $220,000.

The above three methods, from halving cycles, on-chain data, and supply-demand balance, suggest that Bitcoin's potential peak range in this cycle is approximately between $170,000 and $240,000. Of course, the final price of Bitcoin will still depend on the K-line movements, and this should not be used as the basis for investment trading.