XRP ( XRP ) price is down today, mirroring declines witnessed elsewhere in the cryptocurrency market.

On Oct. 10, XRP’s price dropped nearly 1.5% to $0.50, bringing its week-to-date returns to -4.5%. The token’s sell-off in the week mirrored bearish sentiments across the top-ranking crypto assets, with Bitcoin ( BTC ) and Ether ( ETH ) down 1.8% and 3.5%, respectively.

XRP/USD vs. BTC/USD and ETH/USD daily price performance chart. Source: TradingView

Let’s take a close look at the catalysts moving XRP’s price lower today.

XRP drops amid Israel-Palestine conflict

Crypto traders have ditched most top cryptocurrencies in the face of an escalating Israel-Palestine conflict . XRP is no different.

For instance, the crypto market’s total capitalization has dropped by over $32 billion since Hamas attacked Israel over the weekend. On the other hand, demand for traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasurys and gold has jumped.

 Crypto market vs. US 10-year Treasury and gold daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

Cryptocurrencies’ immediate reaction to geopolitical conflicts has been mostly negative in the past. For instance, the crypto market’s valuation dropped over 11% when the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out on Feb. 24, 2022. The market pared most of these losses shortly after. 

Big XRP inflows to crypto exchanges

XRP’s decline this week further coincides with massive token transfers over the weekend and at the week’s beginning.

On Oct. 9, an address associated with Ripple moved 60 million XRP worth about $30 million to an unknown wallet, data resource Whale Alert updated. Another wallet transferred over $15 million to the Bitstamp crypto exchange.

30,300,000 #XRP (15,214,882 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to #Bitstamp https://t.co/TgqGDcIt2y

— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) October 9, 2023

XRP technical analysis hints at 50% crash in 2023

From a technical perspective, XRP’s recent price action has painted what appears to be a bump-and-run-eversal (BARR) pattern.

BARR forms when excessive speculation drives an asset’s price higher speedily, eventually leading to a “bull trap” situation. The pattern is confirmed after the price breaks below its lead-in trendline, falling by as much as its maximum height, as illustrated below.

XRP/USD three-day price chart ft. BARR pattern setup. Source: TradingView

Thus, the bearish target for XRP price in this scenario is a 50% drop to $0.25 over the next few months. 

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Conversely, the downside outlook may become invalid if XRP price reclaims the lead-in-trendline and its 50-3D (the red wave) and 200-3D (the blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMAs) as support. 

XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

This bullish case would put XRP’s price next upside target at its 0.236 Fib line near $0.69, up around 40% from current price levels.  

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.