Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesCopyBotsEarn
After bitcoin ETF approval, analysts remain divided on ETH ETF timetable

After bitcoin ETF approval, analysts remain divided on ETH ETF timetable

BlockworksBlockworks2024/02/01 02:04
By:Blockworks

While some analysts think there could be an ether ETF decision in just a few months, others warn we may be years away

When will spot ether ETFs launch?

With spot bitcoin ETF approvals behind crypto, many are turning to what they believe is next: ether ETFs. The Securities and Exchange Commission recently delayed decisions on the handful of spot ether ETF applicants, which include Fidelity and BlackRock. 

However, experts aren’t aligned on when a spot ether ETF could hit the market

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart told Blockworks last week that he believes there’s a 60% chance that the SEC will opt to approve the potential ETFs in May.

TD Cowen expects a much longer path to an ether ETF and they don’t expect approval in 2024. 

Read more: BlackRock spot ether ETF decision delayed by SEC

“We still believe that action is unlikely until late 2025 or early 2026 as we believe SEC Chair Gensler wants to apply what is learned from the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs to spot Ethereum ETFs,” analysts led by Jaret Seiberg said in a note. 

The decision to approve or deny the ETFs is political, TD Cowen continued. 

“We believe there is no upside for SEC Chair Gary Gensler to approve a spot Ethereum ETF given how upset progressive Democrats were over the agency’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this month,” they wrote.

Standard Chartered, however, believes that ether ETFs could begin trading sooner rather than later. 

“Approvals are likely on 23 May,” analysts wrote. “We think the SEC ’s dominant strategy for ETH ETF applications is to replicate the BTC process. This partly reflects structural similarities between the two.”

The path to a bitcoin ETF took several years — and some refilings from interested issuers — as well as a court battle, before the SEC voted 3-2 to approve them. 

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce previously said that the agency doesn’t plan to face another court case before approving a product such as ether ETFs.

She also noted that the SEC will “apply precedent,” though she offered no timeline.

TD Cowen said that they do believe the SEC will approve a spot ether ETF, most likely under Chair Gary Gensler.

Standard Chartered, however, believes it’s “highly likely” the agency will follow in the same footsteps as the bitcoin ETFs. 

The Standard Chartered note lines up with Seyffart’s beliefs. 

“So if the SEC wants to get geared up and ready to go and wants [the potential ETF issuers] to go at the same time, they’ll likely do it on May 23 unless they can figure out some way to deny or delay this whole process and do what they want,” he told Blockworks.

Van Buren Capital general partner Scott Johnsson also believes that, long-term, ether ETF approval “is almost guaranteed.”

But the SEC may need more time to “get up to speed with Ethereum versus Bitcoin ,” he said in a post on X last week.

Don’t miss the next big story – join our  free daily newsletter .

Tags
  • BlackRock
  • ETFs
  • ether ETFs
  • Fidelity
  • SEC
0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Locked for new tokens.
APR up to 10%. Always on, always get airdrop.
Lock now!

You may also like

The Daily: Dogecoin investors drop class-action lawsuit against Elon Musk, Michael Saylor plans $100K bitcoin party and more

Dogecoin investors have dropped their class-action lawsuit against Elon Musk, which accused him of manipulating the price of DOGE during its 2021 surge from less than $0.10 to around $0.70.JPMorgan analysts anticipate positive regulatory changes for crypto under President-elect Donald Trump, with clearer frameworks likely to benefit the industry.President-elect Donald Trump nominated bitcoin advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services on Thursday.The following article is

The Block2024/11/15 20:23

Matrixport Included Developments That Will Affect Bitcoin in December in Its Weekly Report! Here Are the Details

Matrixport's latest weekly report highlights a number of positive factors that have underpinned Bitcoin's recent strong performance.

Bitcoinsistemi2024/11/15 20:00

Trump's Inflow Wave Has Ended! Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Experience First Outflows Since Election!

It ended a wave of inflows and outflows in spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs that has been ongoing since Donald Trump was elected president on November 5.

Bitcoinsistemi2024/11/15 19:55