Bitcoin’s market structure beneficial to price post-halving — Grayscale

Fundamental changes to Bitcoin’s demand-supply equation are likely to have a greater impact on the cryptocurrency prices following the upcoming halving, according to an analysis from asset manager Grayscale. 

Historically, periods of price appreciation have followed halving events. However, a new factor will also impact Bitcoin performance for this April’s halving: exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

"Beyond generally positive onchain fundamentals, Bitcoin’s market structure looks beneficial to price post-halving," says the report.

Grayscale’s analysis points out that the current mining rate of 6.25 Bitcoin per block amounts to approximately $14 billion annually — considering the price at $43,000. In other words, to maintain current prices, $14 billion worth of buy pressure is required over the same period.

“Post-halving, these requirements will decrease by half: with only 3.125 Bitcoin mined per block, that equates to a decrease to $7 billion annually, effectively easing the sell pressure.”

The selling pressure comes from Bitcoin miners. Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a “halving” event that cuts the reward for mining a block in half. This slows down the rate at which new coins are introduced into the network. 

For miners, the deflationary mechanism means a 50% reduction in mining revenue . Yet, mining costs remain the same or may even increase in order to remain profitable. In response to cost pressures, miners usually sell more of their Bitcoin inventory, thus increasing supply and depressing prices.

According to Grayscale, the recent debut of nine Bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street could “serve as a counterbalance” to the miners’ sell pressure. “Bitcoin ETFs could significantly absorb sell pressure, potentially reshaping Bitcoin’s market structure by providing a new, steady demand source, which is positive to price.”

Bitcoin ETFs have seen positive demand. The recently launched products completed their first 20 trading sessions on Fev. 9 hitting the $10 billion milestone in assets under management (AUM) . BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust is leading the way with BTC holdings worth $4 billion, according to data from BitMEX Research.

“A sensitivity analysis of daily net inflows [...] suggests that at the higher end, the reduction in sell pressure could mirror the effects of another halving, fundamentally transforming Bitcoin’s market structure in a positive way.”

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