CryptoQuant: Bitcoin halving effect may not be as expected, increased demand from BTC investors is a key driver of BTC prices

CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency analysis company, released a research report stating that the supply shock of Bitcoin halving may not have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices as expected. According to CryptoQuant, it is the increased demand from investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin that is the "key driving factor" for Bitcoin prices, rather than the impact of halving. Although Bitcoin halving typically reduces supply, pushing up prices, CryptoQuant pointed out that during the period from 2021 to 2023, there were several instances where the demand from long-term holders exceeded the supply during the same period. The current supply-demand gap is larger than ever before, indicating that even with halving, the impact on Bitcoin prices may not be as significant as in the past. In addition, the total circulation of Bitcoin has dropped to only 4% of the total supply, much lower than the proportion before halving. The open interest (OI) of Bitcoin futures contracts is as high as 783.6 billion US dollars, only 11 days away from halving. RektCapital pointed out that even if Bitcoin prices fall before halving, they may quickly rebound.