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On-chain data for the 16th week: Spot selling pressure is at a relatively low level, and the US core inflation PCE data will be watched in the short

BlockBeats-Article2024/04/23 09:47
By:BlockBeats-Article
Original title: "Where will the market go after the halving, and how has the market structure changed?"
Original source: WTR Research Institute


Review of this week


This week from April 15 to April 22, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $66,867, and the lowest price was close to $59,600, with a fluctuation range of about 10.87%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 63,000, which will have a certain support or pressure.


• Analysis:

1. 59000-63000 is about 840,000 pieces;

2. 64000-68000 is about 900,000 pieces;

• The probability of not falling below 57000~61000 in the short term is 82%;

• The probability of not breaking 71000~74000 in the short term is 67%.


Important news


Economic news


1. The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve maintained the growth characteristics of the "slight" expansion of the US economy since February, continuing the generally pessimistic description of economic activities, and people are cautiously optimistic about the economy.

2. ECB Governing Council member Centeno: If interest rates must be cut before the Fed, so be it.

3. Bank of America's April survey of global fund managers found that as optimism about economic growth grows, concerns about the prospect of stagflation are beginning to fade (60%, peak at 92%);

4. A net 20% of investors expect global profits to improve, the highest level since August 2021.

5. Powell hinted at a delay in rate cuts, saying: Strong inflation last quarter has brought new uncertainty to whether and when interest rates can be cut later this year.

6. Powell said: "Recent data show that inflation has not made enough progress this year; if high inflation persists, the Fed can maintain the current interest rate as long as it is necessary;

7. Eurozone data showed that the inflation rate fell from 2.6% in February to 2.4%, which was consistent with the initial value. Eurozone inflation slowed across the board last month, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates in June.

8. ECB President Lagarde said: Unless there are major surprises, interest rates will be cut soon. The ECB does not target exchange rates; Governing Council member Rehn: If the June assessment confirms that inflation is moving toward the target, we may lower interest rates;


Crypto Ecological News


1. HODL15 Capital data shows that Upbit cold wallet "Mr.100" is working hard to hoard BTC. It has purchased almost all newly mined BTC in the past three days. From April 15 to 17, it purchased 800, 600, and 400 BTC respectively.

2. Jamie Coutts CMT, a former Bloomberg analyst, said that by 2030, Blockchain's daily active users are conservatively predicted to be 70 million

3. According to Google Trends data, the search interest for BTC halving has reached 45 points, and Google predicts that it will reach 100 points by the end of this month. Research and brokerage firm Bernstein expects BTC to resume its bullish trajectory after the halving.


Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state

Medium-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions


Long-term insights


• Position structure of long-term participants

• Growth and destruction of on-chain chips

• Position status of various whales

• Spot selling pressure


(Figure below: Position structure of long-term participants)


Looking at the historical cyclical bull and bear changes, long-term participants account for less than 30% The market will face the danger of a hollow structure.

This is the most important thing to pay attention to, and at present, the chip structure of long-term participants staying in the market is still more than 52%.

From the figure, long-term participants have stopped reducing their holdings in the near future.


(The following figure shows the growth and destruction of chips on the chain)


The chips on the chain are still growing and creating significantly after the previous week.

From the long-term perspective of the market, it is often positively correlated with the market to a certain extent, especially in terms of having a positive impact on the market.

This means that the market is still in good health.


(The following figure shows the position status of each whale)


The whales’ positions are rather strange, with fewer purchases and some selling.

It may be to deal with some uncertainties and hesitations around the halving.

In this regard, we need to pay more attention to the overall pressure brought by the market.


(The following figure shows spot selling pressure)


The spot selling pressure in the market has dropped to the middle stage, and from the perspective of the upward environment of the bull market, it is relatively low.

If the current situation and expectations are that of a bull market, then the current selling pressure is relatively low.


Mid-term exploration


• Short-term sentiment composition

• US ETF address balance

• BTC profit cycle

• Network sentiment positivity


(Short-term sentiment composition in the figure below)



The situation of new forces has not been repaired, and the overall pace is still in the reduction.

It may cause the impact of insufficient liquidity in the near future.

At the same time, the selling of long-term participants in the market is also slightly slowing down.

Perhaps the sentiment of new participants is still being repaired, and there is still a problem of insufficient supply when sliding in this state.


(US ETF address balance in the figure below)


The reduction of US ETFs is facing a turning point.

The long-established market structure is changing, and the recent market price has been affected by the increase and reduction of US ETFs.

The current ETF selling pressure has eased, and the main pressure on the market may be slightly reduced.


(BTC profit cycle in the figure below)


BTC is still in a period of high profit share, with an overall profit share of more than 80%, that is, the current market has a "money-making effect".

When the profit ratio is above 98%, the market may face the pressure of profit shock without the support of new forces.

At present, the profit ratio may return to the basic level, and more incremental funds will be needed in the future, otherwise the market will hover in the state of stock game, and fall into the dilemma of not being able to gain market value growth.


(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)


The overall trading sentiment is still in a state of repair.

If the trading sentiment continues to decline, it may indicate that the enthusiasm for trading on the disk is not high, and it may be necessary to wait for a new turning point.

The market may enter a better state by then.


Short-term observation


• Derivatives risk factor

• Option intention transaction ratio

• Derivatives trading volume

• Option implied volatility

• Profit and loss transfer volume

• New addresses and active addresses

• Bingtangcheng Exchange net position

• Yitai Exchange net position

• High-weight selling pressure

• Global purchasing power status

• Stablecoin exchange net position

• Off-chain exchange data


Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 60,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.


(The following figure shows the Coinbase off-chain data)


There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60,000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000, 72,000, and 74,000.


(The following figure shows the Binance off-chain data)


There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 61,000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000, 72,000, and 74,000.


(The following figure shows Bitfinex off-chain data)


There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000, 72,000, and 74,000.


Summary of this week:


Summary of news:


1. BTC is currently in its fourth halving cycle. In the third cycle, the amplitude of the halving month in 2020 was 22%, followed by a 25% increase in the next 3 months, a 111% increase in 6 months, and a 337% increase in 12 months.

2. At present, market institutions and capital are relatively consistent in believing that the decline of halving does not mean a decline in the overall trend in the long run. The main factor of this short-term decline is, on the other hand, also the main factor of the long-term rise.

3. The expectation of a decline in the Fed's interest rate will also help the market move forward this year.

4. Be cautious about every battle, but try to remain relatively optimistic at the same time.

In the short term, pay attention to the PCE data of core inflation in the United States this Friday, which can show whether there will be an early interest rate cut.


Long-term insights on the chain:


1. At present, there are more than 52% of the chips left in the market by long-term participants, and the selling has been reduced recently. If it drops to 30%, the market will enter a dangerous state of hollow structure;

2. New chips on the chain are actively creating, which has a healthy effect on the market;

3. Overall, the whales are not too active in buying in large quantities;

4. The spot selling pressure in the market has dropped to the middle stage. If the expectation is a bull market, it is relatively low.

• Market tone:

Overall, it is relatively healthy, the market has entered a period of slowness and accumulation, and greater strength may require time to accumulate.


On-chain mid-term exploration:


1. New participants still have no signs of increasing holdings, and long-term participants have slowed down their reductions;

2. The ETF address balance has seen a reduction inflection point, and the pressure on the market may gradually ease;

3. BTC is still in a cycle of 80% profit share;

4. Trading sentiment still needs to be repaired, and there is no turning point.

• Market tone:

Repair

The ETF address balance has seen a reduction inflection point, and the pressure has eased slightly, but the overall trading enthusiasm still needs to be repaired.


Risk warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.


This article comes from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.


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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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