CICC: The Fed may only cut interest rates once this year, in the fourth quarter

A research report by CICC believes that the US actual GDP growth rate for Q1 2024 was 1.6% compared to the previous quarter, which is lower than the market expectation of 2.4% and lower than the 3.4% for Q4 of last year. The agency believes that this GDP report is not as weak as it appears, as consumer spending and fixed asset investment, which represent domestic demand, remain stable, and the low GDP growth rate was dragged down by high import growth. However, the increase in imports actually indicates that demand is strong and that local supply cannot meet demand, so overseas supply is needed to meet demand, which is consistent with the "supply shortage" feature of the US economy since the outbreak of the pandemic. More importantly than the GDP data, the core PCE inflation in Q1 rebounded higher than expected, which is the biggest hidden danger in the market. If inflation has elasticity, it will raise the threshold for the Fed to cut interest rates and keep US dollar interest rates at a high level for longer. The agency reaffirmed its previous judgment that the Fed may only cut interest rates once this year, in the fourth quarter.