On-chain data for the 23rd week: BTC’s short-term strong support is $63,000, and the market is expected to remain stagnant

Original title: "Non-farm data and unemployment rate performance are weird, how does the market rhythm adjust｜WTR 6.10"
Original source: WTR Research Institute

Review of this week

This week from June 3 to June 10, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $71997, the lowest was close to $67612, and the fluctuation range reached about 6.4%.
Observing the chip distribution map, there are a lot of chips traded around 67000, which will have a certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:
1. 59000-63000 is about 890,000 pieces;
2. 64000-68000 is about 830,000 pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 57000~61000 in the short term is 82%;
• The probability of not rising below 71000～74000 in the short term is 67%.

Important news

Economic news

1. On Thursday, June 6, the European Central Bank announced its June interest rate decision, and as expected, it cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first time since 2019, and the second central bank to cut interest rates among G7 member countries.
2. On June 5, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, in line with market expectations.
3. Interest rate market data show that the Bank of Canada has a 60% chance of further rate cuts in July.
4. On Thursday, U.S. data showed that the number of JOLTs job openings in the U.S. in April was 8.059 million, lower than the expected value of 8.355 million and lower than the previous value of 8.488 million.
5. The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000 in May, with an expected value of 180,000 and a previous value of 175,000.
6. The U.S. unemployment rate in May was 4%, with an expected value of 3.90% and a previous value of 3.90%.

Crypto Ecological News

1. According to HODL15Capital data, the Australian Monochrome spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of 1 BTC on the first day.
2. South Korea's new law will require banks to pay interest on deposits in cryptocurrency exchanges, which will take effect in July 2024.
3. According to Bitcoin Magazine data, El Salvador currently holds 5,770 BTC, worth $402 million.
4. The US spot BTC ETF attracted about $2.4 billion in the past month, making it the third largest net inflow in the entire ETF market.
5. K33 Research reported that the spot ETH ETF is about to be listed in the United States. K33 estimates that the inflow of ETH ETFs in the first five months is between $3 billion and $4.8 billion.
6. Bernstein analysts said that after Biden vetoed the SAB 121 repeal bill, the changing narrative behind the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s unexpected approval of the ETH ETF has reduced credibility.
7. Biden vetoed the bill to repeal SAB 121, indicating that the SEC's decision is more pragmatic to avoid legal disputes.
8. David Krause, a professor at Marquette University in the United States, believes that the Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) purchased $164 million of BTC spot ETFs in the first quarter, which may just be a test of the market reaction. It is expected that SWIB and other US pension plans may continue to follow up. SWIB manages assets of approximately $156 billion.

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insight

• Surrender and profit realization of long-term and short-term participants
• Large net positions on exchanges
• Traditional whale net positions
• US crypto ETF net positions

(Below: Surrender and profit realization of long-term and short-term participants)

This is the new experimental data:
Light green area: short-term speculators make profits
Green area: long-term investors make large profits
Yellow area: short-term speculators surrender
Red area: long-term investor portraits.
The blue moving averages represent the relative loss, relative profit, large profit, and super large profit of long-term investors.
Generally speaking, when the green and light green areas and the light blue moving average, which is the dividing line of super large profit, meet for the first time, the market will fall into hesitation or stage top.
When the yellow and red areas occur at the same time, it is generally the bottom of the cycle, and the yellow area is generally the bottom of the bull market.
Currently, the super large profit of long-term investors is around 71,800, and there have been hesitations and stage tops before and at this position.

(The following figure shows the large net position of the exchange)

The figure shows that the transfer of more than 1 million US dollars in the exchange (bad news) is decreasing to a relative degree.
The large-scale selling in the market has begun to decline.

（Figure below: Traditional whale net position）

Whales also began to accumulate relatively, but the willingness to buy began to decline relatively.

（Figure below: US crypto ETF net position）

The US ETF crypto net position shows continuous positive inflows for many days, and the ETF selling pressure began to ease.
The market began to increase more external capital inflows.

Medium-term exploration

• Incremental model
• Accumulation trend points
• Ratio of long-term to short-term SOPR
• Network sentiment positivity

（Figure below: Incremental model）

In the recent market, the overall performance is close to the game status of the stock market.
There is no sign of a turnaround in the incremental volume in the market. From the perspective of BTC, the stock status in the market is still maintained.

(Accumulation trend score in the figure below)

The accumulation status in the market has eased slightly, and the accumulation status of addresses>10k is gradually approaching 0.5 points.
If this situation can continue, the market may gradually present an accumulation structure, and time will be exchanged for space.
Combined with the incremental model, in the stock environment, the accumulation trend of the large group may improve the status of the market.

(Ratio of long-term to short-term SOPR in the figure below)

SOPR, that is, the cost-output profit ratio, observes the cost ratio of profit and loss over a period of time.
This indicator sets the green line as the upper threshold and the light blue line as the lower threshold.
When the model breaks through the upper threshold, it may mean that the market has reached the highest profit level that it can currently bear.
It has been touched once in March 2024, and the current market is closer to a neutral tone.
It is possible that SOPR is still fluctuating within the threshold range.

(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)

There are signs of a slight slowdown in on-chain transaction sentiment, but from the perspective of growth, it is still in the upward trend channel.
It is possible that the current growth situation is still reserved.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk factor
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Bingtangcheng Exchange net position
• Yitai Exchange net position
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin Exchange net position
• Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor is in the neutral area. Derivatives risk is moderate.

(Figure below: Derivatives risk factor)

Consistent with last week's expectations, ETH showed a shock adjustment. After the risk factor rose from the red area to the green area last week, it is now in the neutral area. However, judging from the risk factor, the market may continue to shock and adjust this week.

(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)

Option trading volume has dropped slightly, and the proportion of put options is at a low level.

(Figure below: Derivatives trading volume)

Derivatives trading volume is at a low level.

(Figure below: Option implied volatility)

Implied volatility has dropped slightly.

Sentiment rating: neutral

(Figure below: Profit and loss transfer)

The short-term holder cost line is around 63K, and the continuous market volatility also shows that panic sentiment (orange line) is difficult to continue to rise at the current price without external black swan conditions, causing a huge market decline.
Currently, both positive sentiment (blue line) and panic sentiment (orange line) are at a low level.

(Newly added addresses and active addresses in the figure below)

Newly added and active addresses are at a low level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, there is a large outflow accumulation, and the selling pressure in the market is low.

(Net position of Bingtangcheng Exchange in the figure below)

The net position of BTC exchange is in a state of large outflow accumulation.

(Net position of E-Tai Exchange in the figure below)

The net position of ETH exchange is in a state of large outflow accumulation.

（Figure below: High-weight selling pressure）

No high-weight selling pressure.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has slightly decreased, and stablecoin purchasing power has slightly recovered.

（Figure below: Global purchasing power status）

This week continued the tone of last week, with a slight decrease in purchasing power in the Americas, but a slight return in purchasing power in Asia and Europe. Overall, purchasing power has decreased slightly compared with last week.

（Figure below: USDT exchange net position）

USDT exchange net positions have recovered slightly.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 71,000.

(The following figure is Coinbase off-chain data)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 65,000 and 67,500;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 71,000, 72,000, and 73,000.

（Binance off-chain data in the figure below）

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 65000, 66000, 67000, and 68000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 71000, 72000, and 73000.

（Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below）

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 65000 and 68500;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000, 71000, 72000, and 73000.

Summary of this week:

Summary of news:

1. Non-farm data far exceeded expectations, with only 90,000 people exceeding expectations, but at the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.9% to 4.0%, the highest level in two years.
2. New employment far exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate rose instead of falling, which can only explain the logic of the data and does not meet the expected regulations.
3. In the past year, local workers lost 668,000 jobs, while immigrants added 934,000 jobs. It is very likely that immigration has caused the impact.
4. Therefore, the overall expectation can still maintain a certain degree of optimism. As for the abnormal data, the market needs to react, and all this takes time.
5. When the interest rate cut is carried out, it may be the climax of the bull market.
6. In the short term, pay attention to the CPI on June 12.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. Long-term investors around 71,800 have made more than double the profits, and it has become the staged top of the market, and there have been multiple callbacks;
2. Large-scale selling on exchanges has begun to decline;
3. The accumulation of whales has dropped significantly compared to the beginning of this year, but it is still accumulating;
4. The US crypto ETF has shown positive inflows for many days, and the market has begun to have an additional channel for capital inflows, rather than pressure.
• Market tone:
The market selling pressure has begun to decline and has turned to accumulation again, but the degree of accumulation is not strong.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1. From the perspective of BTC, the market is still in a stock state;
2. Addresses>10k are accumulating continuously, which may slightly improve the current state;
3. SOPR is oscillating in the neutral area;
4. On-chain sentiment is still positive.

• Market tone:
Accumulation, stalemate
The accumulation situation in the market has improved. It is possible that in the stock environment, the rhythm of the market will be more stalemate.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The risk factor is in the neutral area, and the risk is moderate.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
3. Market sentiment rating: neutral.
4. The net position of the exchange as a whole shows a large outflow accumulation state, and the selling pressure is low.
5. The global purchasing power has declined slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered slightly.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 68,000; there is a willingness to sell at 71,000.
7. The probability of not falling below 57,000~61,000 in the short term is 90%; the probability of not rising below 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 67%.

• Market tone:
The overall market sentiment is in a neutral position, and the short-term holder cost line (short-term strong support) has come to around 63K. In the short term, without external conditions, the overall expectation is that the probability of a large-scale short squeeze is low, and it is more inclined to fluctuate upward. The probability of a large-scale decline in the market is still extremely low.

Risk warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

This article comes from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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