Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.21-06.28): SOL rose 7%, VanEck submitted Solana Trust Fund application

SOL rises 7%, VanEck submits Solana Trust fund application

June 28, 2024 Solana cryptocurrency price surged nearly 10% after multiple sources provided verified information about VanEck (VanEck Solana Trust) application for Solana-based spot ETF. VanEck is an asset management company with more than $89 billion in assets under management. This is the first such application filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Solana immediately rose after the news about the spot ETF application, but soon encountered some resistance and profit-taking. Bitcoin reacted to the news by jumping nearly $1,400 from $60,800 to $62,200, but the price is currently below $62,000 again.

There are about 31 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.08.01)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Market technical and sentiment environment analysis

Sentiment Analysis Components

Technical indicators

Price trend

BTC price fell -4.88% and ETH price fell -1.78% in the past week.

The above picture is the price chart of BTC in the past week.

The above picture is the price chart of ETH in the past week.

The table shows the price change rate over the past week.

Price Volume Distribution Chart (Support and Resistance)

In the past week, BTC and ETH fell to 6.24 and formed a dense trading area at a low level before fluctuating widely.

The above picture shows the distribution of BTCs dense trading areas in the past week.

The above picture shows the distribution of ETHs dense trading areas in the past week.

The table shows the weekly intensive trading range of BTC and ETH in the past week.

Volume and Open Interest

BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume this past week when they fell on June 24; open interest for both BTC and ETH rose slightly.

The top of the above picture shows the price trend of BTC, the middle shows the trading volume, the bottom shows the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by the trading volume, red means closing positions, yellow means slowly accumulating positions, and black means crowded state.

The top of the above picture shows the price trend of ETH, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by the trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.

Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility

In the past week, historical volatility of BTC and ETH was highest at 6.24; implied volatility of BTC rose slightly while ETH fell slightly.

The yellow line is the historical volatility, the blue line is the implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average.

Event-driven

No data was released in the past week.

Sentiment Indicators

Momentum Sentiment

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, Nasdaq was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.

The above picture shows the trend of different assets in the past week.

Lending Rate_Lending Sentiment

Over the past week, the average annualized return on USD lending was 13.3%, and short-term interest rates remained around 12.4%.

The yellow line is the highest price of USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.

The table shows the average returns of USD interest rates for different holding days in the past

Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 8.8%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a low level.

The blue line is the funding rate of BTC on Binance, and the red line is its 7-day average

The table shows the average return of BTC fees for different holding days in the past.

Market Correlation_Consensus Sentiment

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week dropped to around 0.45, and the consistency between different varieties dropped significantly.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 5.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 25% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 4% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 6.3% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market continued to fall.

The above picture shows [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Summarize

Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices have experienced wide range fluctuations after the decline, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached the highest level during the decline on June 24. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased slightly. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin has increased slightly, while the implied volatility of Ethereum has decreased slightly. The funding rate of Bitcoin has remained at a low level, which may reflect the continued low leverage sentiment of market participants towards Bitcoin. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies continue to fall, indicating that the overall market has maintained a weak trend over the past week.

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