SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240722): Biden withdraws from the election

Yesterday morning, the Democratic presidential candidate Biden suddenly announced his withdrawal from the election on Twitter, triggering a shock in the crypto market. BTC first fell below 66,000 in a short period of time, and then quickly recovered all the lost ground and climbed below the resistance level of 68,500 US dollars before the opening of the Asian market, showing a V-shaped reversal trend. Analysts have different views on the incident. Some believe that Bidens withdrawal from the election has increased Trumps chances of winning. Considering that Trump has said that he may use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve resource and other remarks in favor of cryptocurrency, this news is good for the price of the currency; others pointed out that since the riots on January 6 this year, the American peoples trust in Trump has also weakened. Trumps current competitor has changed to Kamala Harris. Although his chances of winning are still high, the new candidate is not less threatening than the overwhelming gap with Biden. As the passion of surviving the shooting fades, Trumps prospects for victory seem to have become a little vague again. But in any case, we have seen that the impact of the trend of the US political situation this year on the price of the currency is gradually increasing, and any further actions of the two parties may have an impact on the price trend in the short term.

Source: TradingView

On the macro level, this week there are important indicators such as manufacturing/service index/GDP/PCE released. Considering the upcoming FOMC meeting next week, this weeks data is crucial.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

In terms of options, implied volatility has recently shown a general trend of fluctuating upwards. Due to poor liquidity on weekends, the IV fluctuations caused by the latest news event appear to be more severe. The IV Curve of the term can interpret the views of some markets. In terms of BTC, the Bitcoin 2024 conference scheduled to be held on the 25th-27th of this month has become the focus of attention. At that time, presidential candidate Trump will give a speech as the number one guest. The market has priced it with a high degree of uncertainty, which makes the expiration date 2 AUG 24 after the meeting obtain a higher Vol Premium; in terms of ETH, the spot ETF originally scheduled to start trading on July 23rd has been enthusiastically anticipated by the community, and the IV at the front end has leveled off and risen to a high of 70% Vol.

Source: Deribit (as of 2 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, ETH overall transaction distribution/26 JU L2 4 transaction distribution

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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