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After Gary Gensler, who will be the next SEC leader?

After Gary Gensler, who will be the next SEC leader?

BlockBeats2024/07/23 07:23
By:BlockBeats
Original title: "Countdown to Gary Gensler's resignation? Who will be the next SEC helmsman?"
Original author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily


On July 22, several institutions and media including 10x Research predicted that with Biden's withdrawal from the election, current U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler is expected to resign in early 2025.


Gensler has served as SEC Chairman since April 2021, and more than half of his term has passed. During his tenure, Gensler frequently "fired" at the cryptocurrency industry, led cases against many well-known crypto companies such as Binance, Coinbase, Kraken and FTX, and made strong regulatory remarks on many occasions, such as "The vast majority of tokens in the crypto market are securities, so the issuance and sale of these security-type crypto tokens will be regulated by securities laws."


It is precisely because of this that Gensler has always been regarded by the industry as the "public enemy number one" on the regulatory side, and with the news that Gensler may resign early, the cryptocurrency industry has also begun to look forward to a more friendly figure at the helm of the SEC, thereby providing the industry with a more relaxed growth environment.


Will Gensler step down early?


From the perspective of his term, Gensler's work was originally scheduled to last until 2026, but it has long been a routine for the SEC chairman to resign when the government changes.


Bush Jr. appointed Christopher Cox as SEC Chairman from August 2005 to January 2009, but Cox quickly resigned when Obama took office.


Obama's choice of SEC Chairman Mary Jo White was scheduled to serve from April 2013 to January 2017, but she also submitted her resignation in November 2016 after Trump was first elected president.


Regarding whether Gensler will leave early, Hester Peirce, one of the five commissioners of the current SEC (also one of the hot candidates for successor, detailed below), also hinted at this possibility in an interview recently: "If the president changes, the SEC chairman usually changes as well."


However, Peirce did not make any predictions about potential successors, but emphasized that the new president will have full discretion in choosing the next chairman.


Considering that Biden has withdrawn from the election, the change of the White House is a foregone conclusion,especially considering that the current Republican presidential candidate Trump is far ahead in the probability of winning, and Trump's running mate J.D. Vance has publicly criticized Gensler's work. If Trump succeeds, Gensler will face huge political pressure.


Relatively speaking, if the Democratic Party, which is currently clearly lagging behind, can successfully defend its position, Gensler's probability of continuing to perform his duties should be slightly higher, but it is not ruled out that Harris or other presidential candidates (the Democratic Party has not yet determined the presidential candidate, but Harris is more likely) will replace Gensler, who has made many enemies, in order to win more "allies".


Who might be the successor?


As rumors of Gensler's early resignation spread, speculation about potential successors has increased.


CNBC recently reported that some cryptocurrency investors have submitted several names to Trump as potential successors to Gensler, including J. Christopher Giancarlo and Heath Tarbert, two chairmen of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) during Trump's first term, Dan Gallagher, the current chief legal officer of Robinhood and a two-term SEC commissioner, and Paul Atkins, who served as an SEC commissioner in the Bush administration.


J. Christopher Giancarlo


For the "old men" in the cryptocurrency industry, the names of J. Christopher Giancarlo and Heath Tarbert may not be unfamiliar, especially Giancarlo, who was once praised by the industry as "CryptoDad".


Giancarlo himself not only held a very friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies during his tenure at the CFTC, but also published a book, CryptoDad: The Fight for the Future of Money, after he stepped down as CFTC chairman, telling the story of how he gave the green light to compliant Bitcoin futures during his tenure.


It is worth mentioning that after leaving office, Giancarlo also joined some companies in the industry, such as serving as a director of Paxos and chairman of the advisory board of Polymarket.


Heath Tarbert


Heath Tarbert is Giancarlo's successor at the CFTC. Like Giancarlo, Tarbert is also a well-known cryptocurrency supporter.


During his tenure at the CFTC, Tarbert led the listing of compliant Ethereum futures and Bitcoin options products, and publicly stated that "U.S. regulation lags behind the development of cryptocurrency and blockchain" and "The concept of DeFi is revolutionary" and other supportive remarks. After leaving office, Tarbert joined Circle as chief legal officer.


Dan Gallagher


Dan Gallagher is now the chief legal officer of Robinhood, which is currently one of the companies with the most cryptocurrency business in Web2. In 2022, Gallagher publicly stated: "Don't over-regulate the cryptocurrency industry because it could stifle innovation."


Gallagher is also one of the few potential successors who has responded to the baton. In a statement to CNBC, Gallagher said he was honored to be nominated as the chairman of the SEC in the Trump administration.


Paul Atkins


Compared to the previous few people, Paul Atkins has relatively few clear statements on cryptocurrency, but he has also publicly criticized the SEC's excessive regulation of the cryptocurrency industry.


In an interview with CNBC about the SEC, Atkins said: "It's a mess there right now... I think there's a lot of work to be done and things have to change."


Atkins added that he has not heard from Trump and his team about what role he might take at the agency, but when asked if he would accept a job at the SEC if Trump wins, Atkins responded: "Who knows?"


Hester Peirce


In addition to the four people reported by CNBC, Hester Peirce, the current Republican SEC commissioner, is also seen as a popular successor to Gensler, at least as the acting chairman after Gensler leaves.


Compared to Gensler, you can think of Peirce as the cryptocurrency industry's "best ally" on the regulatory side. In almost every regulatory development about cryptocurrencies you can remember, including ETFs, SAB-121, and multiple lawsuits, Peirce has almost always been on the side of supporting cryptocurrencies.


Because of her long-term friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, Peirce has also been given a kind nickname CryptoMom by the industry-although she recently responded: "I'm not your mother..."


Although Peirce herself did not directly respond to the possibility of taking over as SEC chairman, she has received support from some Senate forces. Rep. French Hill, who is running for chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in a recent interview: "I'm not sure about Peirce's intentions, but I think she is an excellent candidate for the SEC and she can be a good chairman."


The regulatory spring of cryptocurrency


In short, Gensler's early resignation seems to be a high probability event, and from the perspective of potential successors, the names currently exposed by the media are almost all relatively friendly to cryptocurrency.


For the cryptocurrency industry, which has long been plagued by regulation, the next few years may be the most relaxed years in the history of the industry - although this "honeymoon period" that is more or less related to winning votes is itself slightly fragile.


Idealists who believe in decentralization may complain that relying on the current political environment is not what Satoshi Nakamoto intended when he wrote the Bitcoin white paper, but from a realistic perspective, the upcoming regulatory spring may be the best opportunity for all parties in the industry to seek development.


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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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