Polymarket bettors are split on whether ETH will hit an all-time high after ETF launch

Eight exchange-traded funds tracking the price of Ethereum ETH -1.050% ’s native token, ether, went live Tuesday — a bullish moment if ever there was one for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Many industry commentators predict that these funds, similar to spot bitcoin ETFs that have seen breakout success, will drive up the price of ETH.

Kaiko’s Head of Indexes Will Cai, for instance, wrote the “ETH price could be sensitive to inflow numbers of the first days” although “a full demand picture may not emerge for several months,” in a Monday report. Firms from crypto market maker Wintermute to international banking giant Citi have predicted billions of dollars of inflows into spot ETH funds this year.

However, traders on the betting market Polymarket are decidedly less bullish about the prospect of ETH reaching a new all-time high on the back of these exchange-traded products. Prediction markets are a way for pools of geographically dispersed users to crowdsource predictions about future events, which are theoretically less biased because people put “skin in the game.”

Ethereum has rallied approximately 51% since the start of the year to around $3,457 at press time. That is more than $1,000 off from a highwater market above $4,600 set in late 2021. It’s worth noting that bitcoin set an all-time high in March, crossing above $72,000 for the first time, about two months after 11 spot bitcoin ETFs launched, according to The Block’s price page .

There are several live markets on Polymarket where traders can bet on an Ethereum price rise. The largest, with just under $780,000 in the betting pool, has 50% of the gamblers saying there will be “No ATH in 2024” for ETH. About 30% think ETH could rally above $4,600 by the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, a separate pool is wagering that there is a less than 50% chance ETH will be above $3,500 by July 26. Notably, bitcoin also dropped in the days immediately after the spot BTC ETFs started trading. Two other pools say there is a 13% chance ETH will climb to $10,000 by the end of the year and an 8% chance it will hit $15,000 over that same time period.

That said, there are still ETH bulls betting — one pool with $430,000 riding on the outcome predicts there is a 54% chance  ether will set a new high this year.

Additionally, while some experts have said the launch of ETH ETFs could one day open the door to similar products for tokens like Solana’s SOL, Cardano’s ADA or Polygon’s MATIC, Polymarket users so far see little chance of those hitting the market anytime soon. Only 5% of traders say a fund tracking DOGE will go live this year.