What Does the Latest Inflation Data Point to in the US? Will a Rate Cut Come? Here’s What Experts Say

The moderate increase in prices in the US in June, together with the decline in the cost of goods and the rise in the cost of services, underlined an improving inflation environment that could enable the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates in September.

A report released Friday by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed a slight slowdown in consumer spending last month. Signs that price pressures are easing and the labor market is cooling could boost Fed officials' confidence that inflation is moving toward the U.S. central bank's 2% target. The FED will hold its next policy meeting on July 30-31.

Olu Sonola, Head of US Economic Research at Fitch Ratings, said, “The real question now is whether the positive momentum we have seen in the last three months will deteriorate towards the September meeting.” He added: “While the FED keeps one eye on the latest developments in the labor market, it will turn next week's meeting into a rate cut in September.” “It is likely that he will use it to prepare the ground.”

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% last month after remaining unchanged in May.

“Improving inflation data suggest that the rise in inflation seen in the first quarter is temporary,” said Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide's chief economist. “Furthermore, if rental inflation has finally slowed as recent data suggest, then inflation appears to have returned to a sustainable downward trend.” looks.”

Demand in the economy has cooled in response to the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening in 2022 and 2023. While economic growth averaged 2.1% in the first half of this year, it reached 4.2% in the second half of 2023.

Economists at Bank of America Securities estimated excess savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic at about $400 billion and predicted it would last through the end of the year at the current pace of destruction.

“Rising savings suggested consumers were holding back on spending and possibly saving more for precautionary reasons,” said Veronica Clark, a Citigroup economist. “But overall, spending appears to be slowing with lower-than-expected income. By contrast, a very low savings rate is “It would signal the risk of an even sharper decline in spending as the market weakens.”

*This is not investment advice.