Altcoin Season Could Be at Risk, According to Latest Data

It is no longer news that the altcoin season of this cycle has failed to materialize despite clear signs at some point.  Amid this seemingly bullish cycle, recent data shows that there has been a shift that may send the anticipation into extinction.

One of the criteria for the altcoin season was the approval of the spot Ethereum ETFs. Now that it has happened, altcoins have remained mute. Will this remain the case going forward?

Altcoin Season Continues to Show Why It May Not Come Soon

Altcoins appeared to have resumed their uptrend sometime ago. However, that widespread climb did not last. Altcoin Season Index, at that time, had a reading of 33. 

To validate the season , the index has to reach 75, implying that at least 75% of the top 50 non-Bitcoin (BTC) cryptos are outperforming the number one coin.

At press time, the index is 18, a rating it last reached on June 20 and before that — November 2023. This decline implies that altcoin has found it challenging to perform better than BTC, which has been able to reclaim $70,000 lately.

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This decline could be attributed to the lack of investor interest in several altcoins. If interest continues to wane, then demand may be difficult to find. In turn, this could cause prices to keep swinging sideways or lower while the altcoin season fades.

Despite the underwhelming conditions of these cryptos, some market participants believe that the season will appear. One of those confidence about it is Ty Blackard, co-founder of Magnify Labs, a decentralized credits market.

Do Altcoins Still Need Ethereum’s Firepower?

According to Blackcard, the market will move to the altcoin season once ETH surpasses its all-time high .

The market is about to pivot into gas token/altcoin season as $ETH crosses over ATH. Memecoins will still be around, of course, but the narratives and meta will shift to tokens with more “utility” or “fundamentals. Blackard stated.

However, a thorough examination of the altcoin market shows that, with or without ETH, altcoin season can come to pass. This is the inference BeInCrypto got after examining the TOTAL2 and TOTAL3.

TOTAL2 is the total market cap of the 125 altcoins excluding BTC. TOTAL3, on the other hand, is the market cap of altcoins excluding ETH, as well as BTC. From the image below, we observe that the trend of both market caps is similar.

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Therefore, Ethereum’s price may not matter in the grand scheme of things for the altcoin seasons as it did in 2021. However, there is a chance for altcoin prices to pump if capital gained from BTC flows into the sector. If this happens, then the chances of the season this cycle will increase.