Bitcoin fails to hold onto $70,000 – Now what?

Bitcoin recently tried to hit $70,000 but couldn’t keep the momentum. It’s now worth $66,398, leaving traders and investors to wonder what’s next. Other markets aren’t helping either, with macroeconomic volatility on the rise. 

The NASDAQ has dropped 10% from its peak, dragging down tech giants like the “Magnificent 7.” This pullback has obviously spilled over into the cryptocurrency market.

QCP Capital points out that the market’s current state is a mess of volatility. Long positions in USD/JPY and short positions in USD/MXN are getting unwound as traders bail out. 

The VIX jumped to 19.50 after being relatively calm in the 12-14 range for a couple of months.

Why are markets down?

Several factors are adding fuel to the fire. First, Value at Risk (VaR) shocks are forcing risk managers to make traders cut down on their positions. 

This has led to increased selling, which pushes prices down and then feeds back into more volatility—a nasty cycle. 

Another issue is that many stocks have elevated valuations and lofty earnings targets. 

When companies like Microsoft miss their targets, like they did recently with their AI cloud revenue, it shakes investor confidence. Microsoft’s shares dropped 8% in after-hours trading following this miss.

Then there’s the global risk-off sentiment. Currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars have taken a beating, even with a weaker U.S. dollar. 

Commodities like oil and copper have also slumped, falling by 10-15% this month alone. People are spooked about a global economic slowdown, and it’s affecting everything, including, of course, cryptocurrencies.

Crypto’s response and Bitcoin’s struggle

There was a glimmer of hope with a $33.7 million inflow into Ethereum spot ETFs. This gave Ethereum a needed boost, especially since it had been lagging behind Bitcoin. 

But clearly, this isn’t enough to change the overall mood. The U.S. government recently moved 30,000 BTC from the Silk Road seizure, though it didn’t trigger massive selloffs.

This is the sixth time Bitcoin has failed to break above $70,000 and QCP analysts aren’t optimistic about a quick recovery. In their words:

“We maintain our view that BTC will continue to trade within a range. We target a break of 4000 which is the 2024 high.”

They added that they expect Ethereum to catch up to Bitcoin in the next couple of weeks, especially as outflows from its ETFs subside.

The technical indicators aren’t looking great either. The Bollinger Bands show that Bitcoin’s price is near the lower band, meaning it’s oversold. But the lack of a strong rebound tells us that buying interest is weak.

The 50-period and 200-period moving averages are above the current price, acting as resistance levels. This setup means we’ll see a bearish trend in the short term.

The On-Balance Volume indicator is declining, showing that buying volume is down. Investors seem hesitant to buy at higher prices, which could mean more downside ahead. The RSI is at 51.09, a neutral zone.

So, what’s next? Bitcoin’s inability to stay above $70,000 could mean it’s entering a period of consolidation or even more decline. The next key support level to watch is $65,863. If Bitcoin breaks below this level, it could head towards $65,000 or even $64,000.