The Fed may cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the crypto market lacks upward momentum

Original title: "Frontier Lab Crypto Market Weekly Report｜W33"

Original source: Frontier Lab

BTC and ETH Overview of this week

Market performance

The overall cryptocurrency market showed a volatile trend this week:

· Bitcoin: Bitcoin did not rise with risk markets such as the U.S. stock market this week. Instead, it went out of its own downward trend. The main reason was that the decline occurred when the liquidity of the market was very weak last weekend. In addition, the BTC address of Mtgox moved again this week, which led the market to believe that Mtgox would prepare for the final compensation, thereby triggering the market's decline.

· Ethereum:Ethereum also followed the market in a downward trend this week, and did not have its own independent trend, but the decline was stronger than Bitcoin. From the perspective of spot ETFs, there is still capital outflow, which means that most investors are not very interested in investing in Ethereum at this stage.

Key Events

The extent of the Fed's interest rate cut in September

· The Fed's interest rate cut in September has been fully priced in by the market. What is being discussed now is whether it will be cut by 25 BP or 50 BP. According to the economic data released by the United States this week, the market believes that the probability of a 25 BP cut is relatively high, which is a conservative defensive interest rate cut.

U.S. Macroeconomic Data

· The U.S. 1-year inflation forecast of 2.97% announced on Monday was lower than market expectations, which led the market to increase the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September. On Wednesday, the U.S. seasonally adjusted CPI for the end of July was 2.9% and the core CPI was 3.2%. On Thursday, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was 227,000, lower than expected and the previous value, which shows that the U.S. economy is not as bad as the market expected and is still resilient, reducing the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

Geopolitical war uncertainty increases

· After Iran raised the Muslim red flag in the mosque last week to show its determination for revenge, although it has not taken any retaliatory actions against Israel, the situation in the Middle East began to deteriorate rapidly after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard attacked three US military bases in Lebanon on Thursday and the United States sent two aircraft carriers and an Ohio-class nuclear submarine into the Middle East.

· This week, Ukraine continued to intensify its attacks on Russia's Kursk Oblast and launched an attack on the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant. On Monday night, one of its cooling towers was even ignited, making the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant at risk of leakage, thereby increasing the uncertainty of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Mtgox addresses continue to move

· On Wednesday, a $2 billion BTC move occurred at the Mtgox address, which made the market generally believe that this was a test before Mtgox continued to start compensation. Mtgox may soon pay the last BTC, paying all the more than 40,000 BTC on the address, which triggered a market decline. But from another perspective, the Mtgox risk that has been buried for 10 years is about to end.

Altcoin Overview of the Week

Overall Performance

This week, market sentiment rebounded to 13%. Although it has rebounded from 9.2% last week, it is still in the fear range. The rebound in Altcoin sentiment this week is mainly because the performance of Altcoin tokens this week is stronger than that of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Compared with the rebound last week, Altcoin has rebounded this week. However, the trend of the Crypto market this week has deviated from the trend of other risk markets such as the US stock market. This is also because there is a lack of hot spots in the market, and because of some external macro factors, the current long-short game is relatively fierce, and less funds have entered Altcoin, so this week's Altcoin rebound is not sustainable.

Overview of the Gainer List

The top 5 market tokens with the highest gain in the past week (excluding tokens with too small trading volume and meme coins), data source: Coinmarketcap

The gainer list did not show the characteristics of "sector concentration". The rising tokens were scattered in various sectors, belonging to L1s, NFT, ETH-L2, DXE and cross-chain tracks respectively. However, the rebound this week was stronger than last week. It can be seen that many projects started to rebound and make up for the rise this week.

Meme Token Gainer List

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

The rebound of the Meme coin track this week is generally stronger than that of last week, but from the list of token increases, we can see that among the top 50 tokens in terms of increase this week, the proportion of Meme coins is smaller than before, and there are more tokens from other tracks. Therefore, it can be seen that the rebound of the Meme coin track this week is generally smaller than that of other tracks.

Social Media Hotspots

Based on the data of the top five daily growth in LunarCrush and the top five AI scores in Scopechat, the statistics for this week (8.10-8.16) are as follows:

The most frequently appearing theme is L1s, and the tokens on the list are as follows (tokens and meme coins with too small trading volume are not included):

Data source: lunarcrush and Scopechat

As can be seen from the above table, the L1s track projects that social media is paying attention to this week are basically on an upward trend. Most of the L1s projects performed better than BTC and ETH this week, but there were no special events in the market, so it is expected that L1s will rebound less strongly than last week.

Theme Tracking

Data Source: SoSo Value

According to weekly returns, the SocialFi track performed the best, while the AI track performed the worst.

· SocialFi track:TON is the main force of this track, accounting for 94.19% of the market value. This week, Binance launched the Toncoin mining project. This positive news pushed TON to rise strongly, driving the entire SocialFi track to perform well this week.

· AI track: Most tokens in the AI track have been very sluggish this week, with very few rising trends, which shows that the market's attention and funds are not on the AI track. The AI track performed very well at the beginning of this year. Although it has been on a downward trend in recent months, it still maintains a positive rate of return this year.

Preview of major Crypto events next week

· Tuesday (August 20) OORT Summit; Binance.US suspends services to users in Washington State

· Wednesday (August 21) Devcom Gamescon

· Thursday (August 22) U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 17; Coinfest Asia 2024; Terraform Labs bankruptcy case ends, initial crypto loss claims begin

Outlook for next week

1. Bitcoin:With the release of more macro data this week, expectations of a U.S. recession have eased somewhat, and the Fed is beginning to expect a rate cut in September. 25BP, negating the previous speculation of early rate cuts, but due to the instability of global geopolitics and differences in the extent of future rate cuts, Bitcoin is expected to continue to fluctuate widely before the Fed cuts interest rates.

2. Ethereum: This week, Ethereum spot ETF funds continued to outflow, indicating that Ethereum at the current price is not very attractive, so it will not go out of its own trend, and it is expected to remain strongly associated with Bitcoin and fluctuate widely.

3. Altcoin: Although Altcoin is stronger than the market this week and has made up for the rise last week, because there has not been a lot of capital flowing into Crypto in the near future, Altcoin lacks the motivation to continue to rise. It is expected that this compensatory rise may end next week and fluctuate at the same frequency as the market.

This article comes from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.