4Alpha Research: Harris’s odds of winning are soaring: If elected, where will crypto go?

4 Alpha Research Researcher: 0x amuel

On the evening of August 14th, Eastern Time, the U.S. Democratic Party held an online town hall meeting called Crypto 4 Harris to counter Trumps influence in the cryptocurrency industry and hope to win the support of about 40 million Americans who hold cryptocurrencies for Kamala Harris.

However, the media previously reported that Harris would attend in person and discuss with guests such as entrepreneur Mark Cuban and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci. This should have been Harris first direct interaction with the crypto community, but unexpectedly, Harris once again missed the event.

At the meeting, Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer stood up for Harris and promised to enact laws supporting cryptocurrencies if Harris was elected president. However, Harris himself was absent from the meeting, which caused dissatisfaction among a large number of viewers and caused serious doubts about his position.

Nevertheless, as news of the event continues to be released, Harriss chances of becoming the next US president are still rising. According to Polymarket data, before the event was scheduled, Harriss chance of winning was about 40%; after the event was announced on August 8, her chance of winning was equal to Trumps for the first time (49%); with the event on the 14th, Harriss chance of winning further increased to 53% (at the time of writing this article), while Trumps was 44%.

Meanwhile, the price of Kamala Horris ($KAMA), the Harris concept meme coin, is also rising. According to Coingecko data, as of the time of writing, the price of $KAMA has reached $0.0131, up nearly 47% from the low of $0.0089 on August 4. Previously, as Biden withdrew from the election, $KAMA had soared to $0.038. In contrast, Trump concept coin MAGA ($TRUMP) has fallen more than 60% from its high a month ago.

Harris did not attract much attention as Bidens running mate before Biden made it clear that he would withdraw from the election. Trump initially ignored his rival and publicly emphasized that Harris was very opposed to cryptocurrencies. But now, the situation seems to have changed, and support for Harris is growing in both traditional and crypto markets. So, will Harris really be elected? If she becomes the president of the United States, what impact will it have on the crypto market? And how can Trump break the deadlock and turn the situation around?

Indifferent attitude

Unlike Trumps hostile attitude towards cryptocurrencies when he was president of the United States, Harris seems to have always maintained an indifferent and conservative attitude towards this emerging field. She has never paid enough attention to cryptocurrencies and is even regarded by the outside world as not very interested.

First, as Vice President of the United States, Harris is mainly concerned with more traditional macro areas, such as economic recovery, COVID-19 response, environmental issues, and racial equality. Judging from her financial disclosures, Harris and her husband Douglas Emhoff prefer to invest in stable, traditional assets, such as U.S. Treasuries and emerging market stocks. This investment portfolio shows that Harris is particularly cautious in choosing emerging technologies and financial instruments, and she seems to prefer to keep a certain distance from high-risk cryptocurrencies.

Second, although Harris had experience with Silicon Valley tech giants as a senator and state attorney general in California, this did not translate into her public support or involvement in cryptocurrency. Even as cryptocurrency gained more and more attention in Silicon Valley and the tech industry as a whole, Harris did not express clear views on cryptocurrency policy during her tenure in public office, nor did she actively participate in related legislative or regulatory discussions in Congress or other public forums . This silence further demonstrates her cautious approach in this area.

Furthermore, even during her tenure as vice president, Harriss position on cryptocurrency has not changed significantly. She has neither participated in nor promoted any important cryptocurrency-related policies, nor has she made any official statements in support of or against cryptocurrency. In stark contrast to her active involvement in the fields of environment, education, and healthcare, Harriss absence in the field of cryptocurrency stands out.

In general, before officially running for the next US president, Harris attitude towards cryptocurrencies can be described as quite indifferent, which may be due to her caution about the risks and uncertainties in this field. Although there is a certain connection with the technology industry, her investment and policy choices are obviously more inclined to safety and stability. Compared with Trump, who is a businessman and dares to take risks, Harris is undoubtedly more conservative.

False transformation

In order to win the election, Harris seems to have started to make some changes. Her campaign team recently recruited two consultants with cryptocurrency backgrounds: David Plouffe and Gene Sperling. Plouffe was the campaign manager and senior adviser to former US President Obama. After leaving the White House in 2013, he actively got involved in the cryptocurrency field and served as a global strategic advisor on the Binance Global Advisory Board and Alchemy Pay. Sperling, another person who joined Harris team, served on the board of Ripple and served as an important economic adviser in the Clinton and Obama administrations.

On the surface, these actions seem to be Harriss emphasis on cryptocurrency, and she is working hard to establish connections with the crypto industry. The addition of the two advisers may also provide her with certain support and help in winning the election and formulating cryptocurrency policies. However, do these surface efforts really reflect her change of attitude? The answer seems to be no.

Previously, there were rumors that Harris would attend and speak at the Bitcoin conference held at the end of July. As we all know, Trump announced that he would attend the conference even after being shot, and indeed expressed at the conference that he would formulate a series of crypto-friendly policies. The crypto market was very much looking forward to how the two candidates would argue at the conference. However, the result was disappointing. David Bailey quickly confirmed that Harris would not attend, and in the end she did not attend.

Of course, considering that Harris had just been nominated as a presidential candidate and was busy with affairs, it might be understandable that she failed to attend the convention. But then, at a virtual roundtable organized by California Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna, Harriss absence again aroused widespread doubts in the crypto industry. At the meeting, well-known crypto industry representatives including Ripple executives Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, and Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams had dialogues with Democratic officials. As a representative of the Democratic Party, Harris should have attended the meeting. Therefore, Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss publicly questioned the reason why Harris did not attend the meeting on the X platform to express his dissatisfaction.

Perhaps affected by these factors, the dialogue between crypto representatives and Democratic representatives at the roundtable was not smooth. Industry executives failed to reach a consensus with the Democratic Party and instead harshly criticized government officials. Conway and other large donors expressed strong dissatisfaction with the governments empty promises. This tension shows the differences between the crypto industry and the Democratic government in policy positions, and once again deepened the crypto industrys doubts about Harris: Does she really value cryptocurrency?

Strict policies may continue

Today, Harris has once again missed an important crypto event, which has disappointed everyone. However, her approval rating is still steadily rising. As a member of the crypto industry, we have to think: If Harris wins the election, what impact will this have on the cryptocurrency market?

In my previous article Trump to Biden: The Evolution and Impact of US Cryptocurrency Policy , I mentioned that the Biden administration has taken stricter regulatory and tax transparency measures in the crypto market. Although these measures have reduced market uncertainty to a certain extent, they have also aroused concerns and opposition from the crypto community. As a Democratic candidate, Harris may find it difficult to break this established framework in terms of policy.

Arca Chief Investment Officer Jeff Dorman once pointed out that although Trumps election may be more favorable to the cryptocurrency market, Harriss victory will not be as bad as some people worry. He also mentioned that heavyweights in the Democratic Party, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, have recently supported some bills that are favorable to cryptocurrencies, indicating that the attitude towards cryptocurrencies within the Democratic Party is changing.

However, are these changes enough? Alex Thorn, research director at Galaxy Research, noted on X that since Harris has chosen two anti-crypto officials in the Biden administration (Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti) to be part of her team, she may continue Biden’s hostile policies.

You know, Trump has clearly proposed to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and even considered using Bitcoin to solve the US dollar debt problem. These bold remarks are unmatched by the current Democratic Party. Considering Harriss previous actions and the Democratic Partys long-standing harsh policies, I personally find it hard to believe that she will propose a loose policy. Therefore, I am deeply concerned about the cryptocurrency market after Harris becomes president in the future.

Trump: Markets favor him

As mentioned earlier, Trumps advantage lies in his consistent crypto-friendly stance. From releasing multiple series of NFTs, to hosting NFT equity dinners, to risking his life to attend the Bitcoin conference, Trumps performance is undoubtedly more sincere compared to Bidens hasty launch of his own memes to win the favor of the crypto community when he was far behind, and Harriss seemingly gorgeous moves of recruiting crypto teams and conducting meetings.

From the perspective of the crypto market, whether it is the relatively loose policies during Trump’s presidency or the recent upsurge of Trump-related memes, the crypto market clearly favors him.

In addition, Trump recently held a Space event with crypto leader Musk at X. Although the entire conversation did not mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrency, Trumps initiative to contact Musk undoubtedly gained another wave of favorability in the crypto community. This positive move shows that Trump seems to be trying to consolidate his support in the crypto community and show his interest and openness in the field.

Although we can criticize that these actions and speeches of his may just be drawing cakes to win votes, compared with the long-term harsh policies of the Democratic Party, the crypto market is obviously more willing to accept Trumps big cake. After all, every time a political event related to Trump is reported, it brings a significant wave of growth to the cryptocurrency market. In the face of visible benefits, perhaps we dont have to expect too much from the untouchable and illusory Harris policy.

Final Thoughts

Overall, Harris attitude towards cryptocurrencies seems to be still in the process of figuring out. Although she has recently taken some steps to try to get closer to the crypto community, her actions and words always seem to contradict each other, and her position is still unclear . Personally, compared to Trump, it is difficult for me to have enough confidence in Harris at this stage. For the crypto market, whether Harris lead can really bring benefits still needs time to verify. As the election campaign progresses, it may be a good idea to continue to pay attention to her movements in this area, and perhaps there will be clearer signals.

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