‘The Quantum Apocalypse is coming’ — Decoding Meta’s weird warning

Meta engineers recently issued a stark warning: “The Quantum Apocalypse is coming.”

What they’re referring to, according to a recently published podcast and accompanying blog post, is the threat of quantum decryption. This is an impending technological inflection point where quantum computers become capable of cracking standard encryption.

This danger would threaten banks, satellites, military weapon systems, telecommunications centers, blockchains, cryptocurrency exchanges and any other system that uses standard encryption techniques. 

Quantum decryption

When it comes to the Quantum Apocalypse, also referred to as “Q-Day,” there’s good news and bad news. 

The good news is that, for the most part, the world is prepared for the threat of quantum decryption. The United States Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology recently standardized its first set of quantum-resistant cryptography algorithms.

Two of the three approved algorithms were developed by IBM in tandem with other research labs; the third was created by an engineer who has since joined the IBM quantum team. A fourth quantum-resistant algorithm is slated for standardization in late 2024. 

Most major institutions have already begun implementing quantum-safe encryption protocols with assistance from government agencies and technology organizations.

The bad news is that this new form of quantum-safe encryption won’t protect all the data that’s already been stolen. 

Store now, decrypt later

Once organizations have implemented new encryption standards, data currently residing on protected systems should then be safe from the threat of a future quantum computer attack. This won’t retroactively protect data that’s already been stolen and stored elsewhere, however.

The quantum computing industry is in its infancy, and, to the best of our knowledge, no system currently exists that is capable of cracking current standard encryption within a reasonable or feasible amount of time. 

However, bad actors don’t need to decrypt data in order to steal it. There are countless methods by which an individual or organization can intercept, transfer or copy encrypted data. Then, all they have to do is wait around for a quantum computer of sufficient capability to come along, and they can finally crack open their treasure.

Prior to the outset of the pending quantum era, this kind of threat wasn’t that big of a deal. Technically speaking, for example, messages on WhatsApp and similar services are encrypted. That means someone could intercept them by hacking into a sender or receiver’s network, but they’d have no way to read them. 

That might not concern most people today, but there’s a different kind of quantum attack called “Store Now, Decrypt Later (SNDL)” that could one day bring those messages to the light of day.

All the data that’s ever been stored on any networked computer, regardless of its level of encryption, could theoretically have been stolen. Many “hacks” go undetected, and there’s also the threat of authorized users making physical copies of data for nefarious purposes. 

Meta’s weird warning

Meta addressed this threat in a previous blog post discussing the measures it is taking to ensure that, in the future, data on its networks will be safe against SNDL attacks. But there’s nothing in that post or in the Aug. 28 episode of the Meta Tech podcast to indicate that Meta has a plan for any data stolen prior to the implementation of its new quantum-safe protocols. 

This indicates that the company’s engineers are correct to say, “The Quantum Apocalypse is coming.” But it might be more accurate to add, and there’s nothing we can do about it. 

Even if Meta and every other institution globally that stores and/or transmits encrypted data become 100% quantum-proof in 2024, any data that existed prior could still be exposed when “Q-Day” arrives and the decryption phase of SNDL attacks begins.

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