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Sept Is Bitcoin’s Worst Month – Time to Brace for Impact?

DailycoinDailycoin2024/08/30 11:21
By:Dailycoin
  • Bitcoiners anticipate a swift return to all-time highs.
  • September has historically been Bitcoin‘s weakest month.
  • Past data hints at a surge in the final quarter.

Bitcoin’s price performance in 2024 has been a rollercoaster ride for investors. The year began with a strong start, as spot ETF approvals pushed the cryptocurrency to a record $74,000 in March. But as summer rolled in, so did the turbulence, with Bitcoin dipping to a 24-week low amid concerns about the unwinding of the yen carry trade .

The digital asset has largely bounced back from its recent dip, raising hopes for another leg up soon. However, with September fast approaching, a historically tough month for Bitcoin, dreams of hitting new highs might need to be put on ice.

September Blues For Bitcoin 

As Bitcoin enthusiasts set their sights on new heights, a bumpy road likely lies ahead. September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, potentially dampening hopes of hitting new all-time highs anytime soon.

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Data from Coinglass since 2013 revealed a pattern of tough Septembers for Bitcoin, with the leading cryptocurrency closing the month in the red for eight out of the past eleven years.

Bitcoin performance by month since 2013, per Coinglass

Losses during September range from 1.76% to 19.01%, with an average drop of 4.78%. Based on this, it seems September is a jinxed month for Bitcoin.

Last September Was Different

Despite the odds being stacked against Bitcoin for a positive September this year, it’s worth noting that last September defied expectations, with BTC ending the month up by 3.91%.

September 2023’s modest gains, per Trading View


The modest gains last year were driven by a surge in active addresses and growing excitement around Bitcoin NFTs. As the Inscriptions trend gained traction, it helped shift the narrative, showcasing the BTC network as more than just a platform for financial transactions.

What’s in Store for September ’24?

In 2024, Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant volatility. Between January and March alone, it swung from $38,600 to $74,000, equating to a 90% in the opening quarter. 

Despite this extreme fluctuation, Bitcoin has held strong, with a solid year-to-date gain of 43% at the time of writing.

Predicting September’s performance is tricky, but a potential bullish catalyst is on the horizon. The FOMC meeting, concluding on September 18, is expected to result in a 25 basis point rate cut . This move could boost investor risk-on sentiment and potentially benefit Bitcoin.

Q4 Looking Good

While a red September might dampen the spirits of Bitcoin enthusiasts, there’s a silver lining ahead. Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s time to shine, with October and November standing out for their strong price performance.

Nine of the past eleven Octobers ended positively, delivering an average return of 22.90%. November also boasts a solid track record, with seven out of the last eleven Novembers closing in the green and achieving an average return of 46.81%, the highest average return of any month in Bitcoin’s history.

On the Flipside

  • Seasonal patterns are not guaranteed predictors of future performance and can be overridden by current events and market conditions.
  • Long-term investors often view short-term price fluctuations as opportunities for accumulation rather than causes for concern.

Why This Matters

Understanding Bitcoin’s cycles can help investors navigate short-term volatility, but past performance is not a reliable predictor of future prices.

Bitcoin ETF investors flinch under market sell-off:
Bitcoin ETFs Experience $105.3 Million Exodus as BTC Dips 2%

Cardano is set to become fully decentralized as Chang trigger date is confirmed:
Cardano’s Chang Fork Is Go: Sept 1 Launch Locked In

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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