The secret of Fractal’s first mining revenue: Is leasing computing power a profit or a loss?

Original title: "How is the first day's profit of Fractal's first mine? Can leasing computing power make money?"

Original author: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily

At 8 am today, the highly anticipated Fractal mainnet was finally launched. Fractal uses a unique mining mechanism called "Cadence Mining", that is, for every 3 blocks mined, two of them will be mined without permission, and the other block will be merged. Such a mechanism has spawned many Fractal ecological mining projects, and also stimulated the passion of users to lease computing power to participate in the first mine.

Therefore, due to the interests involved, the mainnet mining output and FB price have become the focus of community attention. Although the FB over-the-counter price has risen to around 19 u, many community members still express that they may lose all their money by leasing computing power to participate in the first mine.

Is this really the case? Is it a prelude to "eating meat" or "cutting meat" for ordinary users to participate in Fractal's first mine? Odaily Planet Daily will briefly analyze Fractal's mining output and income in this article, hoping to provide a reference for readers.

Mining cost and benefit estimation

According to the data of the Fractal block browser, the current Fractal combined mining power is about 90 EH/s, and the permission-free mining power is 10000 PH/s (1 EH/s= 1000 PH/s).

It is known that the monthly rental price of 1 PH/s computing power on the market is between 3000-5000 USDT. Even at the lowest rental cost, at the price of FB 19 USDT, a daily output of 5.26 FBs would break even.

The more widely used mining output calculation method in the community is as follows:

Based on an average block time of 30 seconds and two-thirds of the output being license-free mining, approximately 72,000 FBs are produced daily, of which approximately 48,000 FBs are obtained through license-free mining. Therefore, 1 PH/s of computing power can obtain approximately 4.8 FBs per day. Based on the FB over-the-counter price of 19 USDT, miners' daily income is approximately 91.2 USDT.

If this calculation method is used to estimate, not only will it not make money to rent computing power to mine the FB first mine, but as the network's unlicensed mining computing power increases, the FB rewards allocated to each 1 PH/s will continue to decrease, and the losses will expand.

Relatively dynamic calculation method:

The above calculation method is basically based on the situation that the computing power continues to increase and the daily output remains unchanged. However, the fact is that although the Fractal official preset average block time is 30 seconds and the daily output is about 72,000 FB, the current average network block speed is significantly faster than expected.

As shown in the figure below, Fractal mainnet mined 2,500 blocks and produced more than 62,500 FB within 10 hours of its launch. This means that as the computing power increases, the block mining speed is also accelerating. The actual daily output will exceed the previously estimated 72,000.

Therefore, the average time for the actual block generation of the Fractal mainnet during the first mining period is about 10 to 15 seconds, which means that the output of FB today may be between 140,000 and 210,000. Even if the most conservative estimate of 140,000 FB output is used, two-thirds of which are mined without permission, that is, 93,000 FB, 1 PH/s of computing power can obtain about 10.3 FB today. According to the FB over-the-counter price of 19 USDT, the daily income of miners is about 195.7 USDT.

If estimated in this way, as long as the FB price is strong above 10 USDT, players who rent computing power to mine the first FB mine can still make a profit.

However, this calculation method is only relatively dynamic. Changes in the total network computing power, daily output, and FB prices will affect mining output and income. In the end, whether Fractal mining is worth participating in for a long time needs to be re-evaluated after the network runs stably.

Fractal is still full of challenges

Around the launch of the Fractal mainnet today, in addition to the extensive discussion on mining income, there are still some doubts about its network.

The founder of mempool posted on the X platform that Fractal Bitcoin seems to be a "clone" copy of Bitcoin Core v2 4.0.1, and its pre-mined tokens account for 50% of the fully diluted supply of Fractal Bitcoin. Miners will need a full two years (a Fractal Bitcoin halving interval) to earn half of the rewards the founders received on the first day. At the same time, Fractal Bitcoin has many meaningless technical terms that only exist in the white paper, so in his opinion, it is just another shitfork (of Bitcoin).

There were also node problems and long-term block failures in network operation, but the team responded quickly, fixed the node behavior in time and provided a new node version soon.

At the same time, based on the OTC price of 19 USDT, the current market value of FB is close to 4 billion US dollars. Although FB can be transferred through the Fractal mainnet, there is currently no DEC/CEX listing FB tokens, and users' trading behavior still relies on OTC. The low transaction efficiency and opacity also cast a layer of uncertainty on the future price trend of FB.