Analysts warn Bitcoin could fall below $40,000 amid US election impact

Veteran trader Peter Brandt and Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani have raised concerns about a potential decline in Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO:BTC) value, predicting it could fall below $40,000. 

Brandt, who uses Bayesian Probability Theory to adjust predictions based on new information, currently sees a 65% chance that Bitcoin could dip under $40,000. 

His updated forecast reflects a shift from earlier predictions, where he equally saw chances for Bitcoin to drop to $30,000 or rise to $140,000. 

Brandt now estimates a 20% chance of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 and a 15% chance of hitting $130,000 by September 2025. 

His outlook underscores the growing uncertainty in the market, especially as geopolitical and economic conditions continue to evolve. 

Adding another layer of complexity, Chhugani highlighted the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. Presidential election on Bitcoin’s trajectory. 

He suggested that the outcome—whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins—could have a significant influence on the cryptocurrency’s future. 

"We expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide," Chhugani noted. 

"A Trump win could push Bitcoin to new highs, potentially reaching the $80,000-$90,000 range by Q4. However, a Harris win might lead to Bitcoin breaking below the current floor around $50,000, testing the $30,000-$40,000 range." 

This year, Bitcoin has traded between $55,000 and $70,000 after peaking in March. 

Chhugani emphasised that a crypto-friendly election outcome could create a more favorable regulatory environment, reducing policy risks for financial institutions and encouraging more institutional investment in digital assets. 

Conversely, Democratic policies, particularly those led by figures like Senator Elizabeth Warren and SEC Chair Gary Gensler, are viewed as less favorable toward cryptocurrencies. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin (BTC) price was $56,903.17.