Harris win probability surpasses Trump's on Polymarket

On Sept. 12, Harris' 2024 U.S. presidential election win probability rose to 50 percent, surpassing Trump's (49 percent), according to Polymarket, a prediction market.
As previously reported, on September 11, Musk said that while Harris' debate performance exceeded expectations, he still thinks Trump would do better in practice. Musk questioned why, if Harris can do great things, why hasn't he done so far? He noted that Harris has actually wielded considerable power due to the low frequency of incumbent President Joe Biden's work. Musk simplified the choice for voters as whether they want to continue the current trend for another four years or seek change.