BTC breaks through $65,000, what will happen in the future? | Trader Observation

After BTC broke through $70,000 on July 29, a downward trend began. On August 5, it reached $49,000 and rebounded to $65,000. It continued to fall. On September 6, it formed a quasi-double bottom structure around $53,000. On September 19, the Federal Reserve confirmed a rate cut, and BTC rose accordingly. During the U.S. trading session on September 26, with the strong rise of the U.S. stock index, BTC had broken through the previous round of highs of $65,000, destroying the structure of lower lows and higher highs.

Whether this is a real destruction of the downward structure or a false breakthrough of the previous high, how to understand it from a technical level, how to judge the future market in combination with the depth of the contract/spot order book and the liquidation map, whether the macro environment can support the second half of the bull market, and how the market will price the rate cut in the future, trading bloggers have their own views.

Technical Analysis Flow

@Crypto_Scient believes that the trend of USDT.D (USDT Dominance) can be used to speculate on the subsequent development of BTC: If USDT.D follows the red path, seizes liquidity in the daily liquidity concentration area, and then falls back to the rising trend line and then rises, then BTC will show a short trend; If USDT.D follows the blue path, breaks through the trend and reverses the trend, then BTC will go out of the long trend and reach a historical high. Now we need to wait and see whether USDT.D gives a definite signal before deciding on the subsequent trading strategy. @AltcoinSherpa believes that this is a bearish price trend and that we need to obtain liquidity for BTC at $40,000.

@trader_koala believes that this needs to be observed, and two trading strategies have been prepared: if the support level is effective, buy near the order block; if the support level fails, then buy in a deeper decline. If there is a deeper decline such as the daily K entity closing below about $59,000, then the target of the rise is $68,000 to $70,000.

@CryptosLaowai believes that BTC has captured the liquidity of $65,000, and a plunge may occur here. The upward trend of BTC since $53,000 is in the form of an upward expanding wedge. The direction of the wedge will be chosen near the end, and it is likely to go down. The goal is to retest the support of $57,000 to $59,000, and then capture the liquidity of the upward trend line at about $68,000 and then fall.

@0xtaibai It is believed that BTC is stagnant at the resistance level of the previous high point of the 4-hour level. The breakthrough has not been successful. It may consolidate, but there is no reversal structure of decline. If the subsequent short structure breaks through the rebound failure, short selling will be attempted. Mainly observe the potential shock range of the green area. At present, the overall upward trend has not been broken. It is expected to consolidate or a small pullback and then continue to move upward.

@goukiller believes that in the weekly level game, Pivot Point's R3 defense was successful and is still in an upward trend. The subsequent upward targets are R4 US$68,100 and R5 US$79,000.

Data Analysis Flow

@xiaomo924 believes that BTC has broken through the previous high, but the bullish momentum has not continued. If there is no continuous buying, it will need to consolidate and pull back in a short period of time. In the future, we need to pay attention to the retracement strength of the 4-hour EMA20 and 50 to see if it is supported there.

The depth difference of the contract order in the rising trend is greater than the depth difference of the spot order, which means that the contract buying volume is greater than the spot. If there is no more spot buying volume in the future, there will be a risk of false breakthrough

The long-short ratio has come to a low level again, and the whale is in a long position. We need to pay attention to the callback after the release of short-term demand

@Xbt886 From the order book, it was found that there were a large number of sell orders from US$66,000 to US$66,700, and a large number of sell orders from US$62,000 to US$62,000. There are a lot of buy orders at $63,000, which is bullish overall. We can expect a pullback, but it is also possible that it is only attracted by pending orders and will not be actually traded. Don't blindly go short at $62,000 to $63,000. At present, it seems that those who chase high after obtaining short liquidity have been trapped. It is still mainly conservative to observe in the future.

Macro Analysis Flow

@Phyrex_Ni believes that the bullish return cannot be confirmed for the time being. BTC has a low turnover on the chain, and the biggest possibility of rising is still due to low liquidity. Yellen's speech revealed two key points about the macro environment: one is that the current US economy is still good and there is a possibility of a soft landing. The second is that although the labor market is currently stable, it is still relatively fragile and the Fed needs to continue to cut interest rates to keep the labor market from collapsing. In the data of BTC purchases, the user's emotions seem to be mobilized a little. It can be clearly felt that the purchasing power is rising. Even the purchase of ETFs reported in stages has increased significantly. A large number of investors have begun to sell cautiously, and even short-term profit-makers have begun to expect higher prices.

However, investors who held positions earlier are still indifferent. The chip concentration area between US$62,500 and US$64,000 is still increasing, and it has exceeded 1.324 million pieces. The support between US$64,000 and US$69,000 remains in a very good state. The current price changes still depend on whether short-term holders are willing to release the chips in their hands.