Musk says Polymarket more accurate than traditional polls

Elon Musk recently stirred interest in Polymarket, a decentralised predictions market, by claiming it could more accurately predict the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election than traditional polling methods.

Musk’s comments were made on X, the social media platform he owns, and came as he increased his support for Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump.

According to Musk’s post on October 6, Polymarket data showed Trump leading Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by a margin of about three percentage points.

Musk wrote, "Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line."

This statement sparked debate over whether prediction markets, where users stake real money on outcomes, offer a more reliable indicator than standard polls.

Polymarket allows users to stake USD Coin (CRYPTO:USDC) on event outcomes, including political elections.

With the 2024 U.S. presidential election being the most active event in Polymarket’s history, the platform has gained attention from both investors and political analysts.

Some experts have described prediction markets as a public good due to the incentives they provide for more accurate predictions.

However, the debate over accuracy continues.

While Musk and others argue that putting money on the line improves the reliability of predictions, critics point out that betting markets do not always reflect political preferences.

A person could vote for one candidate while betting on their opposition to win, making financial predictions potentially less aligned with personal political beliefs.