Elon Musk Calls Polymarket ‘More Accurate Than Polls’ as Donald Trump Takes the Lead

Key Takeaways

• Elon Musk lauds Polymarket as a true reflection of people’s sentiments.
• Musk’s comments came after his endorsement of Trump, which helped him edge Kamala Harris on Polymarket.
• Polymarket has become a popular betting platform this election season, raking in billions of dollars in volume.

Polymarket, an Ethereum-based betting platform, has recently emerged as a dark horse in predicting electoral outcomes, with its presidential betting pool drawing widespread attention.

The platform’s ability to tap into the crowd’s wisdom, where users put their money behind their predictions, has helped it surpass traditional polling methods in reliability, earning a high-profile endorsement from Elon Musk.

Musk’s Endorsement Helps Trump Edge Harris

The Tesla CEO took to X to praise betting markets, singling out Polymarket as a standout. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk wrote, sharing a screenshot of the platform.

The billionaire entrepreneur’s comments came after he visited a Trump campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Musk’s endorsement appears to have immediately impacted betting platforms like Polymarket, with former President Trump overtaking Vice President Kamala Harris as the leader in the platform’s presidential betting pool.

At press time, just 29 days before the election, Trump was in the lead at 50.8%, with Harris trailing at 48.4%.

Musk’s open support for the Republican candidate has sparked a backlash on social media, with critics accusing him of bias and hypocrisy.

Many pointed out the seeming contradiction between Musk’s endorsement and his previous claims. Others recalled Trump’s past treatment of Musk during his presidency and speculated that the billionaire’s support might be a bid to curry favor with the government for his businesses.

Polymarket Presidential Bet Touch $1.4 Billion

As the presidential campaign enters its final stretch, bettors have wagered nearly $1.4 billion in crypto on the election outcome on Polymarket.

The torrent of crypto bets has catapulted Polymarket to the forefront of prediction markets.

US Presidential betting pool. Source: Polymarket

The platform has experienced exponential growth in users and trading volume in recent months.

According to data from Dune Analytics , Polymarket’s monthly trading volume grew steadily in the first quarter of 2024 but exploded in the second and third quarters as election campaigns gained momentum.

In January, Polymarket’s monthly trading volume stood at $53 million, with approximately 4,000 active users.

By September, however, that figure had skyrocketed to $504 million, with a whopping 80,315 active users—a twenty-fold increase.

The first seven days of October have already seen $250 million in trading volume, with over 34,000 active users, suggesting that this month could surpass September’s record numbers.

Polymarket monthly volume and active users. Source: Dune

It’s apparent that the platform’s success is closely tied to the election cycle, with users eager to place bets on the outcome of the presidential race. However, Polymarket has also gained popularity for  war betting and other controversial events besides election betting.

Regulatory Clouds Gather Over Prediction Markets

Polymarket’s rise to success isn’t without challenges.

The Commodities Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC) is closely monitoring the platform’s activities, warning that it will take enforcement action if Polymarket fails to comply with regulatory obligations.

The CFTC’s warning comes as US policymakers, including Senators Jeff Merkley and Elizabeth Warren, push to ban all election betting platforms , citing concerns over election integrity.

In a letter, the Democratic senators urged the CFTC to restrict all forms of electoral wagers, arguing that such platforms undermine the democratic process.

However, a recent court ruling in favor of Kalshi , a similar betting platform, may have implications for Polymarket’s fate.

A federal court ruled that the CFTC failed to provide sufficient evidence to prove that Kalshi’s prediction contracts caused harm, striking a blow to the regulator’s ban. The ruling could set a precedent for crypto betting platforms navigating the complex regulatory landscape.