Geopolitical Risks ‘Unlikely’ to Derail Bitcoin as Analyst Doubles Down on ‘Uptober’

10x Research CEO Markus Thielen reinforced anticipations for an “Uptober” on October 6, dismissing fears surrounding geopolitical tensions as “unlikely” to derail Bitcoin’s recent momentum.

In a 10x Research report, Thielen reaffirmed a positive outlook for Bitcoin’s price action in October, citing recent geopolitical tensions as “unlikely to disrupt this bullish trend.”

While the report acknowledged its potential to spur volatility, he framed it as an opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on the market’s fluctuations rather than a major threat.

Instead, Thielen pointed to concerns surrounding the U.S. economy as the primary narrative driving price action through October, particularly focusing on the employment sector.

Stronger-Than-Expected U.S. Jobs Data Eases Recession Fears

Fears that last month’s dovish rate cut would be too little , too late in tackling a looming U.S. recession are dissipating as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data foster optimism.

The U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September , substantially surpassing Wall Street’s expectation of 147,000. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%, while the annual pace of wage growth increased to 4.0% from 3.8% in August.

The stronger-than-expected jobs report prompted macro traders to largely eliminate bets on another 50bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November.

According to the CME Fed Watch Tool , money markets are now pricing an 83.5% probability of a 25bps rate cut next month.

This supports the narrative that a soft landing for the U.S. economy is still achievable — the Fed may successfully bring inflation under control without triggering a recession.

This development could stop recession fears from “overshadowing the bullish narrative of rate cuts from the Fed.” Easing this fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) paves the way for what is anticipated to be a bullish concluding quarter to the year .

A Rocky Start for Bitcoin: Uptober Still in Play

Although the first week of October failed to deliver on what was anticipated to be ground zero for the next leg of the bull market, Thielen noted this to be a typical pattern.

“While Bitcoin has historically shown weakness in the first week of the month, the remainder of October is filled with critical catalysts that could sustain the upward momentum,” he said.

As the market’s reaction to September’s jobs data pushes this month into the green, Thielen highlighted the historical positive returns for October, noting that 8 out of the last 10 Octobers have posted gains, averaging +20%.

The next US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on October 10 is anticipated to bring the next installment in the narrative surrounding the US economy.

The CPI forecast of 2.3%, down from the previous 2.5%, suggests a modest slowdown in inflation.

This is corroborated by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, another key inflation measure, which already fell to 2.2% last month, indicating a trend of decreasing inflation.

Meanwhile, Thielen noted that, despite speculation surrounding when retail investors would re-enter the market, it seems “more influenced by institutional flows.”

As spot Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) begin to see positive inflows again , institutional investors signal renewed market optimism for the month ahead.

Political developments have also significantly bolstered sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, with the upcoming US election emerging as a major catalyst for Q4.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s first public endorsement of digital assets has heightened this bullish outlook. Her recent comments affirmed a commitment to supporting crypto and AI to foster innovation.

The endorsement, along with Donald Trump’s open support for cryptocurrency, highlights a growing bipartisan backing that is expected to drive new Bitcoin all-time highs as the push for regulatory clarity intensifies.