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Nearly All Polymarket Crypto Bettors Walk Away Empty-Handed: Report

Nearly All Polymarket Crypto Bettors Walk Away Empty-Handed: Report

CCNCCN2024/10/10 00:12
By:CCN
Key Takeaways
  • Just 13.11% of Polymarket’s registered 177,897 crypto wallets have made a profit.
  • 13,867 of those in profit (59%) have realized gains of $0 to $100
  • 1.2% of all bettors made a profit of over $1,000

Polymarket bettors are operating at a loss, but this hasn’t deterred the crypto event-betting platform’s absurd trading volumes and an ever-growing number of new wallets.

Polymarket Bettors, Down

Despite $2.31 billion in total trading volume across 10.89 million trades, things look pretty bleak for Polymarket bettors. The latest LayerHub data shows roughly 87% of all Polymarket users have made no profit.

Polymarket realized profits. Source: Layerhub

A majority of wallets, 103,247, have lost or made zero money. Furthermore, over 20,00 wallets have seen losses of $500 or more, with three-quarters of that figure being represented by losses exceeding $1,000.

Just 7.79% of bettors have realized meager profits of $0-$100; even fewer have seen gains between $100-$1,000. Only 1.2% of users made over $1,000 in profits.

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As for betting volumes, 33.52% of wallets have posted trading volumes of $0-$100. At maximum, this represents roughly $5.9 million of Polymarket’s trading volumes.

At the very top end, 2.42% of bettors’ trading volumes exceed $50,000, which represents a gigantic $216 million in trading volumes at minimum. Perhaps indicating the absurd wealth of said bettors, only 489 wallets have balances that exceed $10,000, representing just 0.27% of wallets.

Polymarket, Up

The platform’s simple binary Yes/No betting options are a convenient and simple proposal that has proven popular amongst crypto users looking for other ways to leverage their assets.

New Polymarket wallets. Source: LayerHub

At the beginning of 2024, just 8,542 wallets were registered on Polymarket. Since Sept. 22 alone, 45,065 new wallets have been activated on the platform.

Naturally, this has also seen trading volumes spike upward dramatically.

Polymarket trade volumes. Source: LayerHub

This climb is largely attributed to the “ U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2024 ” bet, which has seen over $1.1 billion in volumes since launching on January 2024.

There have been some recent controversies that further propelled Polymarket into the limelight, for better or worse.

Controversy and Contention

The U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) has recently come out against event market platforms such as Polymarket as they could be an existential threat to the natural order of things.

The CFTC has argued that such markets could influence the outcomes of real-world events. This is based on the idea that big money often colludes, and event markets could promote conspiracy and corruption and potentially erode the social contract.

In recent weeks, Polymarket hasn’t done itself any favors in this regard, as many have taken issue with its now-deleted “Hezbollah” betting category. Despite the takedown, Polymarket is still offering conflict/war event contracts.

This leads to another problem, is any of this ethical?

Ethereum co-founder and defender of event markets Vitalik Buterin  defended Polymarket’s right  to issue such contracts, as he believes event markets are more like the “news.” Elon Musk has also gone as far as  to say that they are “more accurate than polls,” which probably stirs the CFTC’s worst fears.

Regardless, Polymarket’s popularity is growing. However, if it does indeed become the arbiter of tragic self-fulfilling prophecies, enforcement actions and lawsuits could soon arrive at Polymarket’s doorstep.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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