Digging into Scroll data: What is the value of points? Is it too late to redeem them now?

Original title: "Deeply digging into Scroll data: What is the estimated unit price of points? Is it still worth participating in the snapshot after ten days? "

Original author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

Yesterday, Scroll announced the launch of Binance Launchpool. "Mao" users will receive 7% of the token airdrops, Binance Launchpool will allocate 5.5% of the tokens, and will not take a snapshot until October 19, which means that users still have the opportunity to participate in Mao.

What is the value of Scroll points? What is the value of Mao in the remaining ten days? Odaily will answer this question by deducing the points data in this article.

Total number of points and estimated value

Scroll mainnet was launched on October 17, 2023. Odaily statistics show that there are 2.495 million addresses that have made one or more transactions since the mainnet was launched.

(Odaily Note: Although Scroll points can be obtained only by cross-chain, depositing in Aave or interacting with other official protocols will obtain multiple points without risk, so it is assumed here that all rational addresses will make a transaction. The points addresses not included in the statistics are those that have not made any transactions after receiving funds on the chain. Such operations have a high risk of witches, and it is assumed that there will be no such operations under rational circumstances. For detailed interaction rules, please see)

In addition, data from LayerHub shows that there are 3,076,903 addresses in total, and scrollstat shows that there are 2,552,610 addresses in total. ）

Odaily extracted 10,000 wallets that had conducted transactions, aiming to use some wallets to estimate the overall points. The points distribution of these 10,000 wallets is as follows:

· As can be seen, small accounts with scores below 100 are the most, accounting for nearly 50%. Overall, users with scores below 5,000 are the main group, and the proportion of higher scores has decreased sharply.

· The average score of these 10,000 addresses is 2,787 points, so the total score of the entire network is estimated to be 2,787 × 2.495 million = 695 million points.

· In yesterday's article 《Listing on Binance Launchpool, what is the reasonable price of Scroll? 》, we estimated the price of a single coin to be 1.15 USDT, and a total of 70 million SCRs were allocated to the users. The unit price of points is 1.15 × 70000000 ÷ 6.95 ÷ 10 ^ 8 = 0.1158 USD/point.

· The top three addresses counted here are 0xaf8ae6955d07776ab690e565ba6fbc79b8de3a5d, 0xe93685f3bba03016f02bd1828badd6195988d950, and 0xb8ff877ed78ba520ece21b1de7843a8a57ca47cb. Readers can view their interactions through LayerHub. scrollstat also gives the details of the top 100 addresses.

Is it too late to scroll now?

Scroll officials have not given the conversion relationship between the deposit amount and the Scroll Mark. According to the community backtest, 0.1 ETH can get about 30-50 points for a month of deposit. Here, 0.1 ETH can get 1 point per day.

Assuming that the official has set a minimum living allowance, it is assumed that the 50% percentile user is a minimum living allowance number, then 100 points need to be obtained. According to the deposit for 10 days, 100 ÷ 10 ÷ 0.1 = 100 0.1 ETH need to be deposited, that is, 10 ETH needs to be deposited for a total of 10 days.

Assuming that 5000 points is a premium number, 5000 ÷ 10 = 500 ETH needs to be deposited, which is worth about 1.2 million US dollars.

Based on the estimated point value of $0.1158 per point, every 0.1 ETH will receive $0.1158 in tokens per day, converted to an annualized rate of 0.1158 ÷ 0.1 ÷ 2420 × 365 = 17.4%  . However, since existing users will also dilute their points in the next ten days, the rate of return will actually be slightly reduced, but it will still be higher than the regular ETH rate of return.

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