Will the Absence of U.S. Investors Slow Down the Bitcoin Bull Market?

• Bitcoin’s recent rise to $64,000 faces uncertainty due to the lack of participation from U.S. investors, particularly on platforms like Coinbase.
• Retail investors show renewed interest, with active addresses rising, but declining trading volumes and open interest signal potential risks ahead.

Bitcoin ’s recent surge to $64,000 has sparked debate about the longevity of its current bullish trend. While the price growth in March ignited optimism, the momentum has noticeably slowed down. One of the key factors contributing to this stagnation is the diminishing involvement of U.S. investors, whose previous influence on the market was critical.

In particular, the dwindling participation on platforms like Coinbase —one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the U.S.—raises questions about whether Bitcoin can sustain its current price levels.

The “Coinbase Premium” index, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other global platforms, has recently dipped into negative territory. This suggests that U.S. buyers are not driving the current rally, indicating a lack of enthusiasm from the American market. When this index falls, it highlights that investors in the U.S. are purchasing Bitcoin at lower prices than their international counterparts, showing reluctance to engage in this price surge.

Adding to these concerns is the decline in open interest, which measures the total number of outstanding derivatives contracts, such as futures or options, tied to Bitcoin . The open interest dropped by 0.83% to $33.25 billion, while trading volume saw a more dramatic decrease of 31.04%, falling to $45.49 billion. A decrease in these metrics typically signals a loss of confidence among traders, especially institutional ones, who heavily rely on such instruments to manage risk or speculate on future price movements.

Without the robust participation of U.S. investors, especially institutions, analysts like BQYoutube have expressed doubts about the sustainability of Bitcoin ’s price increase, warning that this rally could be a short-lived euphoria.

Despite the challenges in the U.S. market, there are glimmers of hope. Bitcoin’s retail investors, often referred to as “small-scale” traders, are showing renewed interest. The number of active Bitcoin addresses—a key indicator of retail activity—recently bounced back. After hitting a low of 600,000 active addresses at the end of September, the metric has now climbed back above 700,000.

This uptick in activity suggests that smaller investors are once again entering the market, providing a potential source of demand that could help offset the lack of institutional support from the U.S.

Nevertheless, the decline in both trading volume and open interest should not be overlooked. Without the backing of U.S. institutional players and major exchanges like Coinbase , the current situation remains fragile. The global participation, particularly from Asian investors, has driven the recent price rally, but the absence of American capital introduces uncertainty.

While some remain optimistic, pointing to forecasts like that of Standard Chartered, which predicts Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before the next U.S. elections, the road ahead is fraught with challenges.