Kalshi Launches First U.S. Political Event Contracts with $14 Million in Volume

Prediction market Kalshi has reportedly certified more than a dozen event contracts related to US political outcomes since winning a court case in September. The contracts are the first binary options in the U.S. to allow traders to bet on election results.

As of 16 October, Kalshi's flagship market, ‘Who Will Win the Presidential Election?’ had accumulated $14 million in trading volume since its launch on 7 October. Still, Kalshi is far behind decentralised prediction market Polymarket, which has amassed nearly $2 billion in US presidential election-related bets.

Kalshi sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in November 2023 and won court rulings in September and October. the CFTC argues that such markets threaten electoral integrity, but analysts say they tend to be a more accurate reflection of public sentiment than polls.

As of 16 October, Kalshi predicted a 55% win for Republican candidate Donald Trump, compared with 45% for Democratic opponent Kamala Harris.Polymarket's forecast was more bullish for Trump, giving him a 58% chance of winning, compared with less than 41% for Harris.