'Quantile model' analyst predicts $135K to $285K Bitcoin price in 2025
Bitcoin’s ( BTC ) strong weekly return of 9.84% exhibited a clear bullish breakout above the descending trendline pattern which has been active since March 2024.
In light of that, Sina, the co-founder of 21st capital, indicated that the current price of Bitcoin falls between the lowest consolidation price range for 2025, according to its quantile Model.
Bitcoin quantile model highlights 3 price range for BTC
Sina presented a study that classified Bitcoin’s “probability space” utilizing a quantile regression model and outlined three specific zones for Bitcoin in 2025.
The analyst mentioned that each zone represented a different price range and market sentiment and, they were termed as cold, warm and hot.
Bitcoin quantile model by Sina. Source: X.com
The “cold” zone (below 33% percentile) for 2025, ranges between $55,000 and $85,000, which includes BTC’s current price. This particular wavelength has been outlined as the lowest probable value for BTC, with seasoned investors expected to build positions while keeping long-term targets of above $100,000 in mind.
The “warm” zone (33% to 66% percentile) ranges between $85,000 and $136,000. Sina mentioned that a majority of retail will start paying attention during this valuation spectrum as BTC forms new all-time highs and goes under price discovery. Investors may gradually build positions in this range with over-exposure.
The “hot” zone (between 66% to 99% percentile) indicates the peak BTC range between $136,000 to $285,000 by the end of 2025, where BTC is expected to consolidate a third of the upcoming year. With respect to each zone, Sina said:
“The 33% quantile ranges coincide perfectly with bitcoin phase transitions. Bitcoin just likes to spend 1/3 of its time in each zone and then transition to the other zone like clockwork. Most of the bear market is (33%, and bull market euphoria begins at) 66%.”
Sina added that prices would move with the most volatility in the hot zone where profit-taking and overleveraged positions will lead to fast market reversals.
Related: 3 signs Bitcoin’s 'parabolic phase' with a $250K target is about to begin
Bitcoin price needs support at $68,500
Intotheblock, an on-chain analytics platform, indicated the historical importance of Bitcoin’s $68,500 price level. BTC peaked between $68,000 and $69,000 in 2021, marking the all-time highs in previous bull markets. Current data highlights a high concentration of activity near previous all-time high levels where over 320,000 active addresses have interacted with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin active addresses by profitability. Source: Intotheblock
Out of 320,000 active addresses, more than 68% have interacted with BTC at an average price of $68,572. Therefore, Bitcoin could potentially form support around this region on the higher time frame (HTF) level based on the investor’s holder’s interest.
However, at the moment, Bitcoin has demonstrated a daily correction of 3% dropping down to $67,000 from a Monday high of $69,555.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart. Source: Trading View
On the 4-hour chart, BTC is receiving support from the 50-day EMA level, which coincides with the resistance level of $67,000. While an immediate move above $68,500 will continue BTC’s bullish momentum, a sideways consolidation near its current price may lead to deeper correction this week.
Related: Lowest search interest since 2020 — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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