Behind the GOAT explosion, the hype and concerns of AI meme｜100x review

With the explosive rise in GOAT's market value, the AI track, which had been dormant for half a year, was finally ignited by a goat. AI, which lingered between decentralized computing power and decentralized data, suddenly became hot after the super-cycle of memes was expected. For a time, the entire market was filled with memes of various AI concepts.

This new token, which has risen so much that even old meme players are dumbfounded, "accidentally" combines the two tracks of AI and meme, creating a sexier and more imaginative AI meme track. AI self-issued coins, a narrative that no one has tried in the past, appears so self-consistent and native against the backdrop of tens of millions of market values.

GOAT's story is worth our careful review. In this process, we can learn about the huge information gap in the current crypto market, the current concerns of AI meme, and the future hype direction and logic of the track.

a16z effect

Truth Terminal (@truth_terminal) was launched on June 17, 2024. The reason why it first became popular was that Marc Andreessen, the founding partner of a16z, paid it $50,000 worth of Bitcoin.

Related reading: A few words made the top Silicon Valley investor pay $50,000 in Bitcoin. How did this AI robot do it?

This is an AI model fine-tuned based on the llama3-70b-base model. All posts it publishes on X are self-generated and selectively published after being reviewed by its developers. On July 10, after Andreessen donated to the Veritas Terminal, Veritas Terminal hinted that it would issue its own tokens and use the raised funds to establish a Discord community. On October 11, Veritas Terminal created its own meme "Goatseus Maximus" on Twitter, and then the meme token of the same name, GOAT, immediately appeared on pump.fun. After its CA was recognized by Veritas Terminal, the token price rose, and the increase exceeded 200 times in half a day, and the market value once reached 20 million US dollars.

Under the background of the PVP model of the PUMP platform, most of the so-called "running out" gold dogs failed to maintain a high market value on the same day. The reason why GOAT first became popular was mainly because of the popularity of a16z and Marc. Everyone was "rubbing" the concept of AI-Bot invested by a16z. Therefore, after GOAT rose to 20m, it encountered the first stage peak. Its performance was the same as most Solana "half gold dogs". The price quickly fell back on the same day and fell to around 6m. Obviously, everyone's expectations for GOAT are still in the logic of PVP, and have not taken into account the sexy concept and imagination space of AI coin issuance.

For example, the smart money address starting with 3DKf (3DKfZz4iHgu42LGu3ttQxqz6u4m5z9ptuar8pBsRqkKC) also gradually profited and fled after making profits on GOAT, and the market gradually looked outward for another narrative.

Image source: Dexscreener

Interestingly, the GOAT case seems to show the extremely long chain of value consensus in the crypto market. In this industry where information is transmitted extremely quickly, the space for "information gap arbitrage" is not as small as many people imagine.

From October 12 to October 13, GOAT was already discussed a lot on Twitter, but the price of GOAT did not match its price and was always in a very undervalued range.

Savior Moonshot, "traffic" becomes AI+Crypto "full score answer"

GOAT broke through the PVP logic and became a turning point in the PVE concept, thanks to the boost of Moonshot.

After Moodeng, Moonshot began to be regarded as the "Upbit in the meme world" by the crypto industry. Many meme tokens launched after Moonshot have gained good gains in a short period of time. Moonshot is an app on the App Store that allows users to directly purchase and sell Memecoin with fiat currency. It allows users to directly purchase meme tokens with fiat currency. In the eyes of many people in the industry, this is tantamount to opening the valve of liquidity for the meme market. GOAT has become another super beneficiary of Moonshot after Moodeng.

Related reading: Moonshot: Can Fiat Money Buy Memecoin?

On October 13, the price of GOAT was at a low of $12 million. At 8:41, Moonshot’s official Twitter account announced the launch of GOAT.

GOAT’s price then soared, breaking through the previous high of $20 million in total market value in less than half an hour, and breaking through the $100 million mark in two days. His influence has become more and more popular, and the narrative of AI meme has been recognized by more people. Not only KOL "order king", but also top VCs, Moonshot official consultants, etc.

Zhu Su, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, posted on social media that he has longed GOAT, with an average opening price of $0.33976; Wintermute has become the third largest holder of GOAT, holding 1% of the total supply of tokens. Chris Burniske, partner of Placeholder, posted on X that the birth of GOAT marks that people and machines are beginning to realize that machines will be able to use blockchain very strongly. Raoul Pal, former senior executive of Goldman Sachs and founder of macro research institution Real Vision, replied: "Yes, this shows the power of autonomous artificial intelligence in the future."

The smart money that once fled with profits has re-entered, and the smart money addresses mentioned above have also returned. The whale that sold most of its chips at an average price of $0.0075 bought back the chips it sold at $0.03.

Image source: Dexscreener

After breaking through 100m, GOAT's potential was unstoppable, setting new highs one after another, and breaking through the 200M mark in just 2 days. The consensus of PVE and AI meme gradually began to go out of the circle and formed a strong consensus in the crypto industry.

Under the continuous PVP environment of the Pump platform, it was not until then that we discovered that GOAT, which was assisted by the Truth Terminal in its issuance, was not PVP, but a brand new narrative "a combination of AI and meme". The two concepts of AI and meme are perfectly adapted. As Andy Ayrey, the founder of Truth Terminal, said, AI talking to each other is a good condition for the spread of Meme viruses.

Compared with GOAT, the previous combination of AI+crypto seemed awkward, because its essence is actually a VC coin issued by the project party, but "AI's own coin" has made many KOLs and even VCs believers. It not only combines with AI to a higher level, but is also very Crypto Native in concept, and also avoids the regulatory risks brought by coin issuance, after all, this is a coin issued by AI.

Under everyone's collective fomo, GOAT's market value has been rising all the way. On October 20, the total market value reached a high of 600 million US dollars. Crypto big Vs like Arthur Hayes even shouted that GOAT will reach a market value of 1 billion US dollars.

It's over if you make a typo, the black forest of AI meme

But GOAT does not seem to be the perfect answer to ai+crypto. On October 20, a typo appeared in the Truth Terminal's tweet, misspelling "groups" as "grouops", and GOAT's market value fell rapidly from $27 million to $14.4 million.

The Truth Terminal's misspelling incident caused people to discuss whether it was a real person. Some people believed that this hype about the AImeme narrative was a complete conspiracy. There was no so-called Truth Terminal robot. The Truth Terminal was operated by a conspiracy group. People believed that AI would not make typos, which also caused a wave of hype against AI.

Later, after in-depth research on the Truth Terminal model itself, people found that the AI model fine-tuned based on the llama3-70b-base model itself had a probability of less than 0.1% to misspell words. Andy Ayrey, the founder of the truth terminal model, also posted that he has airdropped part of his 1.25 million GOAT to friends and AI researchers, but he has not made any transactions. truth_terminal's wallet is kept by himself and will be transferred to a legal entity (trust or similar institution) designed to meet its needs. No adjustments will be made to its token holdings until a transparent governance process is in place; all tweets from the truth terminal are created by AI itself, and he did not inject messages into his prompts.

At the same time, top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio said on social media that the decline of GOAT is a good opportunity for him to buy, and he has already bought GOAT. Eugene said that GOAT and GNON will be key positions in the future long-term trend. "If I'm wrong, I'm your exit liquidity," he said.

GOAT's price was also affected by the remarks of Eugene and the founder of Truth Terminal. GOAT rebounded by more than 100% and still has 94.83% to date.

Even though the price of GOAT has returned to the level before the typo, people still have concerns about it, after all, it is only a "half AI token." Andy Ayrey, the founder of Truth Terminal, said that Truth Terminal was not directly responsible for the launch of the GOAT token, it only participated in the promotion of GOAT. It is "a study of the tail risks of meme contagion and unsupervised unlimited creativity in the [large language model] era."

At this point, we still don't know whether this narrative can continue. Many whales have reduced their positions in GOAT to lock in profits. In the "Wet Market" (a place where viruses can grow wildly) nourished by AI meme culture, how far GOAT can go next still needs to be tested by the market in the future.

At present, it seems that the current AI meme still does not seem to get rid of its dependence on the conspiracy group. In this case, it is more like a "semi-AI meme". The Truth Terminal did not participate in the issuance of the token, but only recognized the token and participated in the promotion. It is undeniable that the AI meme has a very high degree of sexiness in narrative and a lot of room for imagination in gameplay, but the market's expectations for its hype are not limited to a16z and AI shouting order meme. The market is waiting for a coin that is completely deployed by AI contracts or autonomously issued on the Pump platform, a completely fair "full AI meme", no rat warehouse, no control, all chips are distributed fairly, driven by market consensus, so that the market can realize that autonomous artificial intelligence can also have a strong application for blockchain in the future.

The emergence of GOAT is just the beginning of AI meme hype. It has opened up a new direction. There will be many more AI memes after this. It is still necessary to guard against the black forest of the conspiracy group, and at the same time, by paying attention to the novel AI gameplay, to seize the next alpha opportunity. Perhaps one day, there will be a brand new AI meme that is completely deployed by AI itself.