Polymarket scrutinises users as Trump leads prediction markets

Crypto predictions platform Polymarket is reportedly tightening checks to ensure that users placing large bets on the upcoming US presidential election are based outside of the United States. 

According to an Oct. 22 report by Bloomberg, this move follows speculation that some US residents may be circumventing platform restrictions using virtual private networks (VPNs). 

Polymarket has systems to block US users, but new concerns have prompted a more rigorous verification process.

Polymarket’s latest action coincides with the increasing odds favoring Donald Trump for the 2024 election. 

The platform’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market indicates Trump has a 63.7% chance of winning, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris at 36.2%. 

Nearly $2.3 billion in bets have been placed, with speculation that large wagers by whales are skewing these odds.

A key figure in this debate is the Polymarket user “Fredi9999,” who has reportedly placed over $20 million on Republican outcomes. 

Despite Trump leading on both Polymarket and competitor Kalshi — where his odds stand at 60% — recent voter polls, such as Reuters’ poll, show Harris leading with 46% to Trump’s 43%.

Kalshi’s founder, Tarek Mansour, addressed concerns about potential market manipulation, asserting that the results reflect genuine sentiment. 

“The median bet size on Harris is larger than that on Trump, with Harris’s median bet at $85 compared to Trump’s $58,” he explained.

Meanwhile, billionaire investor and Polymarket backer Mark Cuban suggested that most of the money entering Polymarket is likely from foreign sources. 

“From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don’t think it’s an indication of anything,” Cuban remarked in an interview with CNBC.

In January 2022, Polymarket settled with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for $1.4 million for offering event-based binary options without proper registration. 

More recently, the CFTC partially lost a lawsuit against Kalshi after a court ruled the regulator had exceeded its authority by suspending Kalshi’s election markets.