Is the altcoin market about to arrive? Four key indicators to determine
The key indicators are BTC.D, ETH/BTC, USDT.D, and OTHERS/BTC.
Author: Cryptowrit3r
Translation: Baihua Blockchain
One of the most discussed topics in the cryptocurrency space has always been "Altseason." This is because this brief period often sees crazy returns. Altseason is considered a major source of attraction for crypto tourists as it helps bring newcomers into the crypto space. Today, we will explore the top four indicators predicting the upcoming Altseason in 2025.
1. What is Altseason in cryptocurrency?
Altseason is a phenomenon in the crypto space known for generating insane profits. This phenomenon occurs with all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin, known as altcoins. So think of your Solana, your BNB, your SUI, and so on. When Altseason arrives, all these tokens start to outperform Bitcoin on various metrics, and their prices soar. Some tokens can double in price within hours, while others can see a 1000% increase in less than a week.
But all good things must come to an end. This is why Altseason is usually followed by a severe sell-off, marking the peak of the bull market cycle. We will see a disruption in the upward trend, with prices crashing due to massive whale sell-off pressure. When Altseason occurs during a bear market, it is often referred to as a relief rally and tends to be shorter in duration. The sell-off begins when tokens hit their high time frame (HTF) resistance levels. In high time frames, each candle represents a day, a week, or a month. This is often referred to as a trap bull, a term favored by Capo in the crypto space.
Recently, there have been significant changes in the cryptocurrency market. This is because there are now millions of crypto projects operating, meaning that when funds flow into the market, there are many projects to choose from. This could lead to diluted returns during the upcoming Altseason in 2025, leaving many token holders disappointed. The flow of funds typically looks like the diagram below.
Let’s discuss the top indicators, the four key indicators for the Altseason in 2025. We believe there are four indicators that will play a crucial role in the 2025 Altseason:
- Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
- ETH/BTC
- USDT Dominance
- Other pairs/BTC
Let’s analyze each indicator one by one.
2. Why is BTC.D important?
BTC.D represents Bitcoin Dominance (market share). This indicator is crucial for predicting our position in the market cycle. This is because it measures Bitcoin's share of the entire crypto market. If BTC.D is 61%, then Bitcoin controls 61% of the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, 61% of the liquidity is specifically allocated to Bitcoin. Naturally, this means that it is Bitcoin's season, and we should expect altcoins to weaken relative to Bitcoin. When BTC.D starts to decline, it is a good sign for altcoins. This is when things get interesting, as liquidity flows more towards other crypto assets like Ethereum, blue chips, and altcoins.
Notice that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has reached a significant resistance level on the weekly chart. This means we can expect it to peak between 62-63%. If it does not peak, it will continue to rise until it approaches 70% before possibly peaking again. A drop below 58% on the daily chart, followed by a test of 60% that fails to close above 60%, may indicate that this "big brother" (chad) has peaked.
The blue circles on the chart indicate the Altseason of 2021, when many famous crypto millionaires were born.
3. ETH/BTC as a Predictor
If you ask any crypto expert, they will tell you that ETH/BTC is one of the most important charts to watch closely. When ETH declines relative to BTC, altcoins often weaken and experience distribution (a fancy term for large-scale selling). However, when ETH gains momentum relative to BTC, you can expect the arrival of the Altseason in 2025.
It is well known that ETH is the largest ecosystem in the crypto space, with the highest Total Value Locked (TVL). TVL is as important to blockchains as deposits are to banks. This is why when it rises, everything tends to rise quickly, and we see green candles everywhere. Observing high time frame charts, you will notice that ETH/BTC has been in a prolonged decline. It is currently facing a strong support level around 0.031, which could begin to reverse upwards. This could trigger the Altseason. ETH/BTC may also reverse if it fails to drop below 0.033 and closes above 0.04.
Pro Tip: When plotting such indicators, be sure to use HTF candlestick charts, such as monthly and weekly, or at least daily.
4. USDT.D and Liquidity Flow
USDT.D is the market share of the US dollar stablecoin USDT in the crypto market. Tether issues USDT, which we know is the largest stablecoin in the crypto space. This means that whenever there is buying pressure, people will buy by exchanging USDT for various crypto assets.
Generally, when USDT.D declines, people are selling USDT to buy cryptocurrencies, whether Bitcoin or altcoins. In tough times, people flock to Bitcoin but will buy during Bitcoin's season (remember BTC.D) because Bitcoin's price will rise. But if you see USDT.D declining while altcoin prices are rising, it means liquidity is flowing more towards altcoins rather than Bitcoin.
There is also a chart called OTHERS that you can find on Tradingview. This chart represents all altcoins except blue chips and the top ten projects. If this chart rises while USDT.D declines, it simply means that the Altseason of 2025 is upon us.
A decline in USDT.D may also indicate that investors are cashing out profits or panicking. If you see TOTAL1, which is the total market capitalization of the crypto market, also declining while this indicator is falling, it means something serious is happening.
You want to see this indicator drop below 4% and stay below it weekly to confirm that liquidity is flowing into crypto assets. If this coincides with a decline in BTC.D, then it’s time to act!
5. OTHERS/BTC Secret Sauce
We talked about OTHERS, which includes all altcoins except blue chips. A better chart is to look at the performance of these altcoins (OTHERS) relative to Bitcoin. To get this chart on Tradingview, simply open the search bar and enter OTHERS/BTC, as shown in the image. Then look for the marked indicator and click on it.
You will be able to plot the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Simply put, whenever these altcoins gain momentum relative to Bitcoin, it is Altseason. Whenever Bitcoin gains momentum, it is Bitcoin season. The best time to buy altcoins is when they form long-term lows relative to Bitcoin, just as they are doing now.
Conversely, the best time to sell altcoins is when they peak, as was the case in early 2022.
6. Conclusion
Remember, no one can predict the market's tops or bottoms. The best we can do is make rational guesses. These indicators help us make those guesses, but we can never pinpoint the long-awaited long-term lows that everyone is waiting for. The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile and unpredictable. Never forget that. Please remember that this is educational content and should not be considered financial advice.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
After MicroStrategy, Another Company Announced That It Bought a Large Volume of Bitcoin! Here Are the Details
Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings announced that it purchased 6,474 Bitcoins worth approximately $615 million.
Today's popular MEME inventory
ADA Price Analysis Today: How Much Will Cardano Be Worth in 2025?