Data Scientist: The accuracy rate of Polymarket, a crypto prediction market, in predicting world events reaches 90%

Research by data scientist Alex McCullough shows that the prediction market Polymarket has an accuracy rate of 90% when predicting events occurring one month later, and up to 94% accuracy four hours before the event. McCullough analyzed Polymarket's historical data and found that after eliminating extreme probability values, the platform slightly but consistently overestimates the probability of events happening within most probability ranges. This could be influenced by factors such as herd mentality, low liquidity, and participants' preference for high-risk betting.