Bitcoin’s Quiet Rally Hints at $300K Breakout in 2025 Cycle: How?

Bitcoin (BTC) price continued its steady climb on Monday, brushing against its $85,000 resistance level, as speculation intensified over a potential $300,000 cycle top. However, growing concerns over institutional outflows and muted retail engagement paint a more restrained picture of the current market structure.

Bitcoin’s technical indicators point to a potential breakout, but reduced liquidity and ongoing ETF outflows continue to weigh on trader sentiment. The current macro backdrop has limited momentum compared to the 2020 cycle.

ETF Outflows Raise Institutional Red Flags

Despite BTC’s upward trajectory, capital from United States spot  Bitcoin  exchange-traded funds (ETFs) flowed out last week. According to SoSoValue, the sector saw net outflows of $713.30 million, following $172.69 million the previous week.

Total Bitcoin Spot netflow weekly chart. Source: SoSoValue

This marks a notable shift. Since Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, weekly ETF flows have remained weak, with outflows dominating mid-Feb. onward. The data suggests that institutional conviction is cooling as volatility increases and macro conditions remain tight.

A more structured market driven by institutional players has changed Bitcoin’s behavior. Unlike previous cycles—marked by fast, euphoric moves—this one appears methodical, with fewer sharp rallies and longer accumulation phases.

Metaplanet Buys the Dip, Boosts BTC Holdings

Even as some institutions pulled back, others doubled down. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet confirmed Monday that it purchased 319 BTC for ¥3.7 billion ($26.3 million), at an average price of $82,549.

Metaplanet charts. Source:  Google Finance

Its holdings now stand at 4,525 BTC, underscoring its long-term strategy. This move follows its April 2 acquisition of 160 BTC and signals ongoing corporate interest despite recent ETF hesitation.

Public company participation in Bitcoin remains a key driver for market legitimacy. These strategic accumulations by entities such as Metaplanet reduce the circulating supply and add long-term demand support.

Derivatives Show Bullish Bets on $100K BTC Price

Amberdata’s open interest data shows that the $100,000 strike price holds the highest notional volume among BTC calls—over $1.19 billion.

BTC calls open interest by strike notional chart.  Source: Amberdata

This concentration of far out-of-the-money (OTM) calls suggests growing speculation for an extended rally. The data reflects a market preparing for explosive upside moves, even if spot action has remained sluggish.

Source: Bitcoinsensus/X

Bitcoin dominance also continues to rise. According to Bitcoinsensus, the  BTC Dominance  Index has not shown weakness on higher timeframes, posting consecutive weekly closes with no signs of reversal.

BTC Price Sentiment Diverges as Retail Steps Back

According to analyst Crypto Daan, the current cycle feels “boring” compared to 2020–2021. Short-term holder activity remains subdued, with fewer participants holding BTC for less than a month.

Earlier cycles benefitted from zero interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing. In contrast, today’s high-rate environment restricts capital movement and dampens fast momentum.

“The market feels structured, like it’s avoiding the mania of previous cycles,” Dan noted.

Bitcoin quarterly returns. Source: Merlijn Trader/X

Meanwhile, Merlijn Trader flagged that Bitcoin’s current setup mirrors 2020’s reversal pattern. In that cycle, a similar Q1 dip followed by Q2 strength led to a 500% rally. “You’ve been warned,” he wrote on X, suggesting BTC could repeat history.

Technical Setup Suggests Long-Term Upside

On the technical front, chartist Gert van Lagen identified a continued breakout from a four-year inverse head and shoulders (iHS) formation. His $300,000 target remains intact unless BTC weekly closes fall below $75,500.

Source: Gert van Lagen

Trader EliZ also emphasized liquidity grabs as key market triggers, arguing that deviation points signal volatility ahead, whether to the upside or downside.

BTC consolidates near resistance, eyes $82.5K retest. Source: EliZ/X

While BTC climbs toward the $85,000 mark, its path diverges from prior cycles. ETF outflows, slow retail engagement, and cautious capital suggest a different kind of bull market built on patience, not euphoria.

Still, with open interest stacked at $100K and corporate buyers like Metaplanet stepping in, Bitcoin’s ceiling may only be a pause away from breaking.