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Bitget Research: US CPI Exceeds Expectations Dampening Short-Term Market Sentiment, TON Surges with Early Opportunities in Ecosystem

Cary & John
2024/03/13
Bitget Research: US CPI Exceeds Expectations Dampening Short-Term Market Sentiment, TON Surges with Early Opportunities in Ecosystem
In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which could potentially be the next wealth creation opportunity.

Overview

In February, both the overall and core CPI in the United States exceeded expectations, suppressing the probability of a rate cut in June. There was an increase in large financing for tier-one projects, and secondary blockchain projects generally showed strength, with the following highlights:
  • Sectors with strong wealth creation effect: Layer 1 chain sector and the Polkadot ecosystem.
  • Top searched tokens and topics by users: Blast Bridge, Polyhedra, Nibiru, AMP, and AEVO.
  • Potential airdrop opportunities: Bitget Wallet (BWB) and Goplus.
Following the US CPI announcement, the market experienced a brief pullback across gold, U.S. stocks, and the crypto market, all initially falling and then rising, indicating that the market has certain expectations for recurring inflation processes. Bitcoin is currently experiencing significant volatility after breaking through $69,000, with the market maintaining high liquidity. Capital rotation into new sectors is expected, suggesting keeping an eye on the leading chains and their ecosystems.
Data collection time: March 13, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)

1. Market Environment

In February, both the overall and core CPI in the United States exceeded expectations, leading to initial drops followed by increases in gold, U.S. stocks, and the crypto market. This reveals that the market has certain expectations for recurring inflation processes. With the price of BTC currently stable above $69,000, the crypto market will maintain high liquidity, which is favorable for capital rotation between sectors. Meanwhile, the primary market has seen large financing rounds ranging from tens of millions to as high as $200 million, which will also boost the valuations of old projects in the secondary market.
Old altcoins that were still in a low fluctuation range have caught the attention of investors and experienced bullish breakout trends, as well as blockchain sector projects like TON, NEAR, and their ecosystem projects have seen significant increases. This indicates an increase in the capital rotation and bullish sentiment in the market.

2. Wealth Creation Sectors

1) Sector Movements — Layer 1 Chains (TON and NEAR)

Main reasons: 1. New developments related to the blockchains, with TON's associated Telegram considering going public, and NEAR's founder speaking at the NVIDIA conference; 2. The sector has seen a modest increase during the current bull market, and bullish breakout momentum after accumulation in certain ranges is expected.
Price increase: TON rose by 22%, NEAR by 10%.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  1. Whether the ecosystem's TVL and prices begin to grow: It is important to mainly observe core DEXs and DeFi lending projects. If the ecosystem's development is sustainable, it will provide good support for the continuation of price increases or high volatility for the chain’s token in the future.
  2. Whether there are further developments regarding the blockchain: For instance, developments such as deeper integration between TON and Telegram, or NEAR acquiring more AI-related resources, will further drive token prices up. If news is scarce, bullish sentiment may decrease, leading to pullbacks and fluctuations within a certain range.

2) Sector Movements — Polkadot Ecosystem (ACA, MOVR, and CLV)

Main reasons: 1. The Polkadot developer conference started in Bangkok on March 12; 2. Polkadot 2.0 plans to eliminate slot auctions to make it easier for more projects to join the Polkadot ecosystem and a mainnet upgrade is expected in Q2.
Price increase: DOT's increase was modest at just 2.5%, with core ecosystem projects like ACA, MOVR, and CLV rising over 15%.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  1. New product updates and ecosystem policies revealed at the Polkadot developer conference on March 12 will affect the ecosystem projects' bullish sentiment. Currently, DOT-related projects have just broken out of the bear market low range. If this upward trend continues, there could be significant growth ahead.
  2. It's important to monitor whether leading Polkadot projects like DOT and KSM begin to see significant increases. A surge in these projects could drive up the value of other projects within the ecosystem.

3) Sectors to focus on next — LSD sector

Main reason: Layer 2 projects are expected to benefit the most from the ETH Cancun upgrade. As Layer 2 activity strengthens in the future, the entire Ethereum ecosystem will benefit. The LSD sector is currently in a fluctuation range with further breakout potential.
Specific token list:
  • LDO: As the leading asset in the LSD ecosystem and 80% of its TVL being staked ETH, LDO will benefit first.
  • SSV: Leading the LSD sector in distributed validator nodes, SSV promotes further decentralization of ETH's validator nodes and is a key infrastructure component with the potential to attract significant capital inflow.
  • PENDLE: A top-tier asset within the LSD sub-sector LSDFi, PENDLE has strong consensus among investors.

3. User Trending Searches

1) Popular DApps

Blast Bridge:
Blast Bridge is the official cross-chain bridge of Blast. Blast has announced that with the recent update in MakerDAO's yield rate, the yield on Blast's USDB has increased. Now, USDB holders can enjoy an annual yield of 15% plus Blast credits. The increase in on-chain earnings stimulates users to transfer stablecoin assets to the Blast chain via Blast Bridge. Blast users can acquire USDB by bridging stablecoins (USDC, USDT, DAI) to Blast, or by exchanging ETH or other assets for USDB on the Blast Mainnet.

2) Twitter

Bitget Research: US CPI Exceeds Expectations Dampening Short-Term Market Sentiment, TON Surges with Early Opportunities in Ecosystem image 0
Polyhedra (ZK):
Polyhedra Network is a ZK interoperability infrastructure, and its zkBridge has become one of the largest cross-chain infrastructures in the multi-chain ecosystem. Yesterday, OKX Jumpstart launched a new project ZK (Polyhedra Network). Additionally, Polyhedra Network completed a snapshot on March 12 at 4:00 PM, qualifying users with zkBridge transactions, Pandra King NFT holders, users with zkBridge loyalty credits on Galxe, participants in the Binance Web3 Wallet Airdrop, OKX Cryptopedia Season 11, and BNB Chain Airdrop Marathon for the ZK token airdrop.
Polyhedra has secured $25 million in funding, achieving a valuation of $1 billion. The value of the airdrop could be substantial, yet with LayerZero's nearly $3 billion FDV, the potential for further appreciation may be constrained. This suggests that recipients might wisely consider selling their airdropped tokens at an opportune time.

3) Google Search (Global and Regional)

Bitget Research: US CPI Exceeds Expectations Dampening Short-Term Market Sentiment, TON Surges with Early Opportunities in Ecosystem image 1
From a global perspective:
(1) Nibiru (NIBI)
Yesterday, the Layer 1 blockchain Nibiru Chain announced the launch of its mainnet. Nibiru is a Layer 1 blockchain and financial hub integrating leveraged derivative trading, spot trading, staking, and bonding curve liquidity into a seamless user experience. In February this year, Nibiru Chain completed a $12 million funding round with participation from Kraken Ventures, among others. According to its tokenomics, NIBI has a total supply of 1.5 billion tokens, giving it an FDV of $1.369 billion. Given its relatively high valuation, those who trade this token are advised to be cautious about going long.
From a regional perspective:
(1) In English-speaking countries, the token of major interest is AMP
Flexa is a network that facilitates fully digital transactions, ensuring security. Unlike traditional payment methods, Flexa's payment process does not involve sending sensitive customer account information but uses virtual tokens instead. AMP, as the native token of the Flexa network, serves not only governance and staking functions but also acts as collateral for cryptocurrency payments processed on the Flexa network. Yesterday the Gemini founders, the Winklevoss twins, used Gemini Pay that integrates the Flexa network to buy coffee at Starbucks. Additionally, Flexa network's AMP token staking qualifies for an airdrop for the new project Anvil, leading to significant buying activity from users.
(2) Both Asia and Africa have closely followed the AEVO token airdrop
AEVO is a decentralized derivatives exchange offering perpetual futures, options, pre-launch token futures, and other types of derivative trading, using an order book and margin model. The platform's trading volume has surpassed $120 billion during promotion period. AEVO is about to start trading right after the launch. After AEVO is launched on the Binance New Coin Mining, trading will begin on March 13, 2024, 6:00 PM (GMT+8), with the airdrop recipients' profits soon to be revealed. Since the AEVO token may experience significant price fluctuations after launching on Binance, users wanting to lock in profits early may sell AEVO in advance through the Whales Market OTC market.

4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Goplus — Invested in by Binance Labs, high valuation, zero interaction cost
GoPlus is a Web3 user safety data platform primarily focused on detecting risks in token contracts to help users avoid pitfalls like shitcoin scams and project rug pulls. Its features include token inspection, NFT inspection, malicious address database, contract authorization checks, and DApp contract safety. The project has already exceeded 15 million daily calls.
Goplus has secured lead investment from Binance Lab, valuing it at $150 million. The high valuation suggests substantial potential airdrop value, and user interaction is relatively simple, requiring no gas fees.
How to participate: A credit-based promotion is currently available. After linking a wallet through the website, users can scan token contracts and complete tasks such as following on Twitter and joining the community.
BWB — Bitget Wallet’s upcoming platform token with a large potential airdrop quantity
A recent video posted on Bitget Wallet's official Twitter featuring the "BWB" text and token-style logo suggests the platform token's launch is imminent.
Bitget Wallet is a Web3 wallet with substantial funding, a large global user base (over 19 million worldwide), and ranks in the top 5 for global wallet downloads. It is a top-tier project in the wallet sub-sector, which suggests a relatively high valuation.
To participate: Since it is a wallet, completing the following tasks could likely qualify for an airdrop: conducting swap, NFT, and inscription transactions, and joining promotions and activities such as check-ins and following held in collaboration with other projects inside the wallet.
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