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Bitget Research: Federal Reserve Signals Potential September Rate Cut, Crypto Market Continues to Experience High Volatility

Jarseed & Aaron
2024/08/01
Bitget Research: Federal Reserve Signals Potential September Rate Cut, Crypto Market Continues to Experience High Volatility
In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.

Overview

Following the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting last night, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut in September is under consideration. Subsequently, U.S. stocks surged, but cryptocurrencies did not see significant gains and continued to experience fluctuations at high levels. The highlights are as follows:
  • Sectors with strong wealth creation effect: PoW (KAS, ALPH, and SMR) and DeFi (AAVE and COMP).
  • Top searched tokens and topics: Marinade, Swell Network, and Tapswap.
  • Potential airdrop opportunities: Plume Network and Movement.
Data collection time: August 1, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)

1. Market Environment

Following the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting last night, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut in September is under consideration. Subsequently, U.S. stocks surged, but cryptocurrencies did not see significant gains and continued to experience fluctuations at high levels.
In terms of Bitcoin ETFs, there was a net inflow of $300,000 yesterday, which marked a significant decrease in inflow. For Ethereum ETFs, there was a net outflow of $77.2 million, maintaining a substantial net outflow, and the overall market remained in a state of high volatility adjustment.
In the crypto ecosystem, particularly in the POW sector, certain tokens have garnered market attention. This may be linked to the recent recovery of crypto mining, as governments worldwide actively roll out favorable policies related to mining. In addition to deploying mainstream cryptocurrency mining rigs, mining sector is also exploring new POW tokens for investment.

2. Wealth Creation Sectors

2.1 Sector Movements – POW Sector (KAS, ALPH, and SMR)

Primary reasons:
  • Recently, governments globally have been progressively legalizing crypto mining. For instance, Russia has rolled out relevant policies, and the United States is actively expanding this industry. Thus, mining sector is not only focusing on mainstream mining assets but is also exploring new POW tokens for investment. The market has seen some high-quality assets, with recent significant increases in computing power and impressive price performances.
Gainers: KAS increased by 2.37%, ALPH by 3.94%, and SMR by 53.6% in the last 24 hours.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  • Computing power performance: The continuous investment in computing power indicates ongoing deployment of mining rigs, which increases the cost of token mining. This suggests that the majority of the market participants believe it is still profitable to invest in computing power at this cost. At the same time, the entry of large computing powers also indicates the possibility of mining groups joining these projects, which is a sign of large capital inflows.
  • Ecosystem development: The POW sector has several application ecosystems. An ecosystem is key to achieving mass adoption. Therefore, if these ecosystems can attract enough developers and users, the demand for these tokens will rise, potentially sustaining their market performance.

2.2 Sectors to Focus on Next: ETH and ETH DeFi-related sectors

Primary reasons:
  • Following the launch of Ethereum ETFs, there has been a continuous outflow of funds, similar to the trend when Bitcoin ETFs were launched. When the outflow reaches a turning point and net inflows begin, the price of ETH is expected to perform well.
  • On the Ethereum chain, DeFi currently sees several OG DeFi projects altering their token models. For instance, AAVE is soon conducting a community temperature check to decide whether the community agrees to distribute AAVE's income among AAVE holders. Top DeFi projects are highly profitable, and sharing these profits with token holders could usher in a new wave for DeFi.
Gainers: In the last 7 days, AAVE increased by 19.7% and COMP by 8.5%.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  • Policy changes: The market generally believes that the current changes in DeFi protocols are mainly influenced by the expectation that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler might not seek reappointment. Therefore, potential lawsuits regarding these tokens being securities might diminish, and the protocols themselves are actively seeking changes to return actual income to token holders as dividends.
  • Protocol income: If protocols distribute their income, the sustainability of this income will directly affect token price performance. Investors need to closely monitor the share of protocol income in the market, its sustainability, and potential changes.

3. Top Searches

3.1 Popular DApps

Marinade (DApp)
Marinade announced yesterday that it will launch the Stake Auction Marketplace (SAM) mainnet on August 14, aimed at increasing yields and promoting decentralization on Solana. Testing for the SAM simulation began at the end of June, with live auctions starting in August. Currently, the project has a total market cap of just $100 million, with the token price fluctuating at low levels and relatively low trading activity. The project has considerable potential for strategic investment.

3.2 X (former Twitter)

Bitget Research: Federal Reserve Signals Potential September Rate Cut, Crypto Market Continues to Experience High Volatility image 0
Swell Network (DApp)
Swell Network completed the snapshot for Pearls yesterday. Following the snapshot, Swell will release more details about the TGE and anti-sybil measures. In the new airdrop program, holding swETH and rswETH in the DeFi ecosystem can earn Black Pearl. The token airdrop is now available on the Bitget Pre-Market, where users can sell their tokens if they need to hedge in advance.

3.3 Google Search (Global and Regional)

Bitget Research: Federal Reserve Signals Potential September Rate Cut, Crypto Market Continues to Experience High Volatility image 1
Global focus:
Tapswap
TapSwap, a Tap2Earn mini-app, received an endorsement from Telegram founder Pavel Durov. Launched at the end of 2023, it initially debuted on the Solana network before transitioning to the TON ecosystem, where it has garnered significant attention.
Regional focus:
(1) The focus is quite dispersed in Europe and the USA, with "FOMC" appearing in the top searches of multiple countries, highlighting a keen interest among traders in the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings.
(2) Similarly, no distinct hot topics are observed in Asia, but there is notable interest in U.S. stocks such as Tesla and NVIDIA in the Philippines.
(3) Latin America shows an increased interest in SOL and ETH, with AI project sectors appearing on hot searches in Colombia and Argentina.

4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Plume Network
Plume Network is a modular Layer 2 network dedicated to the RWA sector, specializing in integrated asset tokenization to supply vendor products directly on the blockchain. The project recently raised $10 million in a seed round funding, with investments from Haun Ventures, Superscrypt, Galaxy, and SV Angel.
Plume Network has recently launched its testnet and initiated promotions such as Earn Mile, Check In, and Passport.
How to participate: 1. Visit the project's official website and select Connect Wallet to enter the app interface; 2. Earn Plume miles by completing tasks and check-ins within the platform, such as Swap, Stake, and Speculate.
Movement
Founded in 2022, Movement Labs secured $3.4 million in seed round funding in September 2023. In addition to its flagship product, Movement L2, Movement Labs will also launch Move Stack—an execution-layer framework compatible with rollup frameworks including Optimism, Polygon, and Arbitrum.
Recently, Movement Labs raised $38 million in a Series A funding round led by Polychain Capital, with participation from Hack VC, Foresight Ventures, Placeholder, and other prominent institutions.
To participate, enter the Movement Zealy task interface (Note: social tasks have a time period and are continuously updated), interact with the DEX with a few tests, and await further actions from the official site.
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