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Flash
- 09:35The current prediction for Trump winning the US presidential election is 57.5%Polymarket market prediction data shows that the current probability of Trump winning the US presidential election is 57.5%, while Harris has a 42.4% chance of winning. The amount wagered on the US election on this platform has exceeded $2.9 billion.
- 09:34Deribit Bulk Options: A user bought Ethereum put and call options for $2600 at the end of November, totaling 5000 ETHDeribit's Asia-Pacific Business Head, Lin Chen, posted on X stating that a certain user paid a premium of 1.769 million USD to purchase put and call options for the end of November at 2600 USD, totaling 5000 ETH. Analysis suggests that this user likely anticipates significant market fluctuations in the weeks following the election, which may lead to substantial volatility.
- 09:34QCP: The US election week is approaching, and the short-term implied volatility of BTC and ETH remains highQCP Capital released a weekend summary report, which pointed out that Thursday's core PCE data was slightly higher than expected, and Friday's non-farm employment data unexpectedly fell, causing the dollar index to rebound and recover the 104 level. The net inflow of BTC this week exceeded $2.1 billion. BlackRock's IBIT single-day net inflow reached $872 million, the largest single-day net inflow since its launch in January.Despite Bitcoin falling below $69,000 on Friday, market interest remains strong with total open positions for BTC futures and BTC options maintaining high levels at $40.65 billion and $25.3 billion respectively. Although Trump is favored to become the next US president, betting rates on Trump have dropped significantly from Polymarket’s peak of 66% to 57% and 43%. In the upcoming election week, short-term implied volatility for BTC and ETH remains high (above 72 volatility units), as traders increase their efforts towards downside protection; hence bearish option skew continues to rise.
